Australia barely on track for a 50% emissions cut by 2035, warns forecaster
Leading economics forecaster Oxford Economics warns that an ambitious emissions target will require heavy lifting from transport and industry.
Australia risks missing its 2030 emissions target unless renewable energy deployment accelerates significantly, according to a leading climate economics forecaster.
The government’s latest projections from November 2024 show economy-wide emissions falling 42.6% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, just shy of its 43% target. But Oxford Economics head of consulting Kristian Kolding said the pace of wind project development had slowed, and its forecasts indicated the target would be missed by a wider margin.
“We’d say that 43% is a little bit optimistic. A lot needs to go right and this downward trajectory is all based on our renewable rollout. But once we hit 2030 and that plateaus out, then by 2035 we’re getting to around 50%,” Kolding told Capital Brief on the sidelines of Oxford Economics’ annual conference.
“I think it is the fact that we were relying on offshore wind farms being deployed and contributing to our generation before 2030, and there has been a cost escalation of cement and in materials. Investment in wind farms is being pushed out now.”
