Australia's big banks settle in the slow lane after profit season jockeying
The market for bank stocks has settled as investors and analysts finish digesting the fine print of their results. And they're not expecting a rewarding 2024.
On the day a company reports earnings, most eyes are fixed on its share price. But really all that tells us on the day is whether the result hit or missed the consensus forecasts of analysts.
It’s the weeks immediately after that really tell. Analysts will have had time to go through the result documents — and in the case of the banks, that hundreds of pages. And investors, graded according to their holdings, will have had dedicated presentations from the chief executive, the chief financial officer or at least the investor relations department.
We’re now three weeks after the first result, Macquarie Group’s, which was a sea of red numbers. Yet the stock is up more than 3% after dipping in the days after the result. AMP’s impromptu trading update along with a new venture announcement knocked 20% off the share price, but the resolution of a long term class action dispute added 5% yesterday.
Of the other majors, dominant player Commonwealth Bank, seemingly impervious to cycles, is up more than 5% and Westpac more than 3%, while National Australia Bank is down more than 2% and ANZ more than 3%.
