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He could shape the region for a decade but won't be at ASEAN this week

A big question hanging over ASEAN this week is whether stalwart member Indonesia will pivot under the leadership of President-elect Probowo Subianto

Prabowo won't be at ASEAN, but his leadership could help shape the group for the next decade. AAP/Lukas Coch.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will voice his support for southeast Asian countries responding to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea when he jets to the ASEAN summit in Laos this morning.

An alleged Chinese navy attack on Vietnamese fishermen this weekend, described as “brutal” by Hanoi, again underlined the risk of conflict in the region, which is the flashpoint for a great power competition between Beijing and Washington.

But big questions remain about which way one of ASEAN’s main stalwarts, Indonesia, will pivot under the leadership of President-elect and current defence minister Probowo Subianto. Prabowo is less than two weeks from being sworn-in, with his predecessor Joko Widodo – or Jokowi – on a domestic farewell tour after a decade in office.

“It's unpredictable,” says Sussanah Patton, director of the Lowy Institute’s southeast Asia program.