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Stage 3 tax changes gave Labor the winning talking point in Dunkley

A few months ago, Labor was on track to lose the outer-suburban seat in Melbourne's southeast.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles and Jodie Belyea celebrate the victory. AAP/Morgan Hancock

As the first results from the Dunkley byelection started filtering through to the Frankston Bowling Club after 7pm on Saturday, members of the Labor faithful present were still genuinely worried the government could lose the key outer suburban seat.

A booth in Mount Eliza - in the southern, wealthier part of the electorate - was showing a 11% swing towards Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy.

But the fears didn’t last long. Over the next hour, the more than 200 ALP supporters in the room - which included Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, federal Labor MPs Kate Thwaites, Julian Hill and Mary Doyle and state members Paul Edbrooke and Sonya Kilkenny - started breathing sighs of relief.

Just before 9pm, Conroy phoned Labor’s Jodie Belyea to concede defeat.

While the Liberals primary vote had shot up by 7 points, the first preferences for Labor held firm on about 40%, which is what the late Peta Murphy received at the 2022 election.