The state of play on the day of the election
Today's vote is set to deliver a patchy result, with wild swings across the country despite little change in major party primary votes.
Coalition strategists are hoping to pick up more than 10 seats and push Anthony Albanese into minority government, while Labor is zeroing in on eight Liberal- and Greens-held seats in a bid to govern in its own right.
According to Labor and Coalition insiders Capital Brief has spoken to in recent days, Albanese is likely to fall into a narrow but manageable minority government, holding between 72 and 75 seats.
After a redistribution of boundaries, Labor enters today’s election with 78 seats to the Coalition’s 57, meaning Peter Dutton would need a net gain of 19 seats to win majority government.
Following a disjointed and poorly run campaign, senior Coalition sources now concede that winning majority government is off the table. Even reaching the 70-seat threshold to form minority government is seen as highly unlikely.
