Reporter's view: Data difficulties blur retail sales picture
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Reporter’s view: Economics correspondent Jennifer Duke writes, "this is a difficult dataset to interpret because Black Friday sales are throwing off the seasonal adjustments.
"The Australian Bureau of Statistics is aware this is an issue and so are economists, who warn spending may not be as strong as it appears. Ultimately, the retail figures have not convinced major banks and leading economic commentators that the Reserve Bank is more likely to increase rates next month.
"ANZ’s Adelaide Timbrell says that when you take population growth and rising prices into account it actually looks pretty weak for the retail sector. Moody’s Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise said in a note these figures include some delayed spending from October, with shoppers gearing up for the Black Friday sales, and probably a pulling forward of December activity.
"Simply, until seasonal adjustment keeps up with consumer behaviour, the numbers look rosier than the reality. CommBank’s Gareth Aird says it’s no longer just a Friday, with some retailers having a “Black November” of sales. It's increasingly having an outsized influence, and he's sympathetic with the ABS' challenges seasonally adjusting this data year to year.
"December's figures will be released on 30 January giving economists, and the Reserve Bank, a clearer picture ahead of the first rate decision of 2024."
Black Friday and cost-of-living pressures boosted November retail: ABS
The news: Cost-of-living pressures and the increasing popularity of Black Friday sales are changing consumer habits in the lead up to Christmas, ABS data shows.
The numbers: Australian retail turnover lifted 2% in November 2023 after falling 0.4% in October and rising 1% in September. All industries recorded rises in turnover in November, but discretionary goods drove most of the increase, with household goods sales up 7.5%, department stores up 4.2% and clothing, footwear and accessories retail up 2.7% for the month. The popularity of November sales is on the rise, with retail sales in all states and territories up more than 1% on the year before.
The context: The figures suggested consumers were holding back on spending in October to take advantage of November discounts, and some had likely brought forward Christmas spending by a month, ABS business statistics head Robert Ewing said. The ABS will release consumer price index (CPI) data tomorrow.
What they said: "Retailers told us that the success of Black Friday sales was boosted by consumers seeking out discounts in response to cost-of-living pressures,” Ewing said.
The source: ABS Media Release
