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Green Shoots

China GDP growth tops estimates as US tariffs loom

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The news: China's economic growth topped estimates for the first quarter, driven by strong consumption and industrial output.

However, the reporting period pre-dated a sharp escalation in trade tensions with the United States this month, which saw US tariffs on Chinese goods surge from 10% to 145%.

The numbers: The world’s second-largest economy grew 5.4% in the three months to 31 March, beating the average forecast of 5.1%.

Industrial output rose 7.7%, the fastest growth since June 2021. Retail sales increase 5.9%, topping average forecasts of a 4.3% rise.

Despite the upbeat data, China’s benchmark CSI 300 index was down 0.74% at 4:10pm AEST.

The context: China has set its GDP growth target at 5% for 2025, in line with last year's target.

However, UBS, Citi and Goldman Sachs have each downgraded China's growth outlook in recent days due to the ongoing trade war with the US.

Last week, US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on China to 145%. Beijing hit back with a 125% levy on US goods, describing Trump's actions as "a joke".


By Hugo Mathers