Coalition leads in new polls but risks hung parliament
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The news: Two opinion polls over the weekend showed the coalition is on track to win the next election but is short of a majority.
The numbers: A YouGov poll showed the Coalition is on track to win 73 seats at the next federal election, with a range of 65 to 80 seats, while Labor is projected to secure 66 seats, ranging from 59 to 72.
With 76 seats needed for a majority, the model gives a 78% chance of a hung parliament and a 19% chance of a Coalition majority.
The Redbridge poll, commissioned by News Corp Australia, shows the Coalition leading Labor 52% to 48% on a two-party preferred basis in 20 key marginal seats.
That would not be enough for the Coalition to win a majority, reinforcing the likelihood of a minority government.
The context: The election has not been called but must be held by May 17. Cost of living, housing, and healthcare are the top voter concerns.
Voters polled by Redbridge, rated Labor poorly on these issues, while the Coalition was seen as performing slightly better but still negative overall.
The YouGov poll, with 40,000 interviews, suggests Labor could lose 15 seats to the Coalition, including long-held electorates such as Werriwa.
It also showed Labor's primary vote declining 3.5 percentage points since the last election, with YouGov estimating it at 29.1%. If this result holds on election day, it would be the party's lowest first-preference vote since the Labor split in the 1930s.
Labor is projected to regain the Brisbane seats of Griffith, Ryan, and Brisbane from the Greens. Independent Dai Le’s seat of Fowler is also in play.
Peter Dutton named independents Bob Katter and Dai Le as potential allies in a minority government, but ruled out working with the Greens.
Independent Allegra Spender told the ABC Insiders program she remains open to negotiations with either major party, “depending on what they are actually going to put on the table".
And independent MP Monique Ryan told The Australian Financial Review she offered to work with Peter Dutton, but the Opposition Leader showed no interest.
“I have approached Peter Dutton in the past and indicated my willingness to work with him, both now in this term of government and in the event of a balance of power situation," Ryan said. "He has indicated previously he did not think that was something in which he was interested.”
The sources: The Sunday Telegraph, ABC News , The Guardian, The Australian Financial Review
