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Trump comeback

Trump win sparks Wall Street rally as US dollar & bitcoin surge, bonds & gold fall

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The news: Donald Trump’s election win sparked swift reactions in markets, with Wall Street surging to record highs and commodities moving sharply.

The Dow Jones industrials rose over 3% to a new intraday high, the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq by over 2%, and the Russell 2000 by over 4%.

Copper prices dropped nearly 5% amid concerns over Trump's anti-renewable energy stance. Oil stocks rose even as the oil price fell 0.5%.

Gold prices slid over 3% to a three-week low while the US dollar rallied on bets the president-elect’s plans on tariffs and taxes boosts stocks, push up inflation and reduce the pace of interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin climbed to a record high of $75,397 and was last up 7% on the day, according to Reuters. Stocks in banks, private equity firms, private prisons and gun manufacturers jumped.

What they said: Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo described the win as a “game-changer” for banks, predicting eased regulations.

Oxford Economics warned US tariffs may rise to their highest since the 1970s, impacting global trade, with shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd saw shares drop amid trade war fears.

BlackRock’s research arm said the Republican’s victory will bring political clarity, with wide-ranging tariffs an “early priority,” of a Trump administration.

“We see US equities supported by solid economic and corporate earnings growth, political clarity and Federal Reserve rate cuts,” the Blackrock Investment Institute said. “Longer term, much depends on how much of Trump’s agenda is enacted.”

US shale leader Harold Hamm celebrated Trump’s victory as essential for the oil industry, while Indian tycoon Gautam Adani praised Trump’s resilience

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te expressed confidence in continued strong ties with the US.

Liz Cheney, a one of the most prominent Republican critics of Trump, urged Americans to accept the election outcome to uphold democracy.


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Donald Trump wins US election in historic comeback

The news: Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the US, The Associated Press declared, after securing a key win in Wisconsin, surpassing the 270 electoral votes needed.

The numbers: The news agency called the Trump win in the early morning after a victory in Wisconsin gave him 277 electoral votes. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Alaska are yet to be called by the agency, but they all show a Trump lead.

The context: The victory marks the dramatic comeback of a former, twice impeached, president who refused to concede defeat in 2020, incited an assault on the Capitol in 2021, was convicted of felony charges and survived assassination attempts.

Other news agencies, including Fox News, CNN and The New York Times had earlier called Trump’s victory.

Trump comes back to the White House with a clear agenda, including sweeping tariffs, a pledge to oversee the biggest wave of deportations in US history, tax breaks for the wealthy, corporates and those receiving tips, and a repeal and rollback of green energy policies including rescinding unspent funds under Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, among others.

Trump and his allies have also spoken about plans to expand presidential power by bringing independent agencies like the US Fed directly under the thumb of the president and using the Department of Justice to prosecute adversaries.

What they said: Global leaders, including heads of state from Israel, Ukraine, France, Latvia, Lithuania and Japan, congratulated Trump, underscoring alliances.

Markets reacted too. The dollar was set for its biggest one-day rise since March 2020 against major peers, and bitcoin, which Trump has pledged to support, topped a record USD75,345 before stabilising at USD73,700. Trump has vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the world.

US futures markets jumped ahead of the open too, with the Dow rising 2.85% ahead of the market open and the S&P 500 gained almost 2%.

Tesla, led by Trump ally Elon Musk, surged 12% pre-market, while other electric vehicle manufacturers declined. Banking stocks also showed solid gains, driven by anticipation of a regulatory easing under Trump's administration.

US bonds tumbled on expectations of faster inflation, with 30-year Treasury yields jumping 20 basis points to 4.63%, and the 10 -year Treasury yield spiking 15 basis points to 4.44%, its highest level since July.

The Mexican peso slumped to a two-year low, and the Euro led losses among a basket of currencies amid fears Trump's tariffs would damage the European economy.

Speaking to supporters at his Mar-a-Lago headquarters in the early hours of Wednesday, Trump said Americans had given him an “unprecedented and powerful mandate” after Republicans also reclaimed control over the Senate.

"It is now clear we have achieved the most incredible political thing. Look what happened! Is this crazy?" Trump said.

"I will not let you down," he added. “I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America."

The source: The Associated Press


By Paulina Durán