Viva Energy leads ASX 200 gains after E&P Capital upgrade
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More news: Viva Energy was the best performing ASX 200 company in morning trade after E&P Capital upgraded its rating on the oil refiner and retailer.
Viva shares were up 3.1% to $2.14 at 11:30am AEST, having lost more than 32% over the last 12 months.
Ampol — which E&P said could also benefit from upside risk created by ongoing conflict in the Middle East — saw its shares lift 1.1% to $26.02.
E&P expects Iran attacks to create upside risk for Ampol and Viva
The news: E&P Capital has said Middle East tensions are creating upside risk for Australian oil refiners Ampol and Viva Energy, and upgraded its rating on Viva as it tracks the top end of its earnings guidance.
The context: E&P analyst Adam Martin said the escalating conflict in the Middle East has the potential to impact refining margins in the second half of 2025.
If Iranian oil exports are reduced, he said, it is possible Chinese refinery production will reduce, tightening the balances in Asia Pacific. If Iranian refineries are targeted directly, the refined product market will tighten globally.
E&P upgraded Viva to 'positive' due to reduced balanced sheet risk as industry data continues to improve. Martin said he expects Viva to deliver a better refining margin than Ampol in the second quarter of 2025, given Ampol's result may be impacted by demurrage costs.
The source: E&P Capital research
