Goldman Sachs' Solomon reaffirms US recession prediction

The news: Goldman Sachs group chief executive David Solomon has repeated his prediction of a "soft landing" for the US economy and an only one-in-six chance of a recession this cycle, Bloomberg reports.

The numbers: In September, Goldman downgraded its expectations of a recession in the USA to 15% from 20%. The investment bank's analysts expect the US economy to grow at 2.1% during 2024. Solomon said US inflation remained sticky, potentially leading to the US Federal Reserve further hiking interest rates in 2024.

The context: The US economy has continued to be resilient despite high inflation and rising interest rates due to its strong jobs market underpinning household demand. Last month, producer prices and headline inflation came in hotter than expected while core CPI — which excludes fuel and food — came in flat. October's US consumer and producer price growth data come out later this week, which will give another hint as to how the US economy will land this credit cycle.