GrainCorp shares lift as RBC increases price target
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The news: GrainCorp shares were among the biggest gainers as RBC Capital Markets lifted its target price on the soft commodity trader and supply chain provider ahead of a bumper winter crop.
On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) improved its crop production estimate for winter 2025-26. It is now expected to be the third largest on record.
The numbers: At 12:23pm AEST, shares in GrainCorp were up 2.2% to $8.32, and over the last 12 months has dropped 6.67%. RBC Capital Markets increased its price target on the stock to $10.50 from $10.
On Tuesday, ABARES released September crop production forecast that indicated a 11% increase on its previous production estimate. The upgrade consists of a 1% gain in area planted and a 10% gain in yields.
The forecast 61.9 million tonnes of crop production is a 2% gain year on year and would be the third largest crop on record. This would be 26% above the 10-year average.
National summer crop production for 2025-26 is forecast to decrease by 12%, but will still be 21% above the 10-year average.
The context: Major upgrades in production were in part driven by “timely rainfall” in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. The states’ forecast production is expected to lift 14%, 5% and 4% respectively.
However, production is expected to fall in Queensland and New South Wales by 10% and 14% respectively.
The sources: RBC Capital Markets research, ABARES Australian Crop Report September 2025
