Iron ore miners still tracking down amid Morgans downgrade
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The news: Mining majors have continued to slide amid low iron ore demand as Morgans cut its price forecast and downgraded its position on Australia’s largest iron ore miners.
The numbers: At 11:33am the wider materials sector had fallen 1.2%, driven by BHP’s share price fall of 1.5% to $35.66 and Fortescue’s share price fall of 2% to $14.4. Rio Tinto shares had also fallen 0.9% to $101.27.
Morgans analysts dropped their target price on BHP shares from $48.70 to $43.70, on Fortescue shares from $18.80 to $16.50 and on Rio Tinto shares from $18.80 to $16.50.
The context: In a research note, the analysts downgraded their position on BHP shares from ‘buy’ to ‘accumulate’, on Fortescue shares from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ and on Rio Tinto shares from ‘accumulate’ to ‘hold’.
They also cut their iron ore price forecasts to USD89 per tonne for financial year 2026 amid negative margins on rebar and shrinking margins on other steel products.
They flagged that Chinese export profitability is under pressure from escalating tariffs and penalties and that the Chinese government is poised to cut output from high-emissions mills.
The source: Morgans research
