Labor gains ground as Coalition loses cost-of-living lead in new election polls
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The news: Support for the Albanese government has surged as the election campaign begins, with Newspoll and Resolve recording increases in Labor’s primary vote, and YouGov showing a swing towards Labor in seat projections.
Labor is also closing the gap on the Coalition as the party most trusted to handle the cost of living, with its nose ahead in the race to form government, according to the new polling.
The numbers: A YouGov MRP model shows Labor is ahead in 10 seats it was behind in six weeks ago, putting it one seat short of a majority with 75 seats to the Coalition’s 60.
An AFR/Freshwater poll shows the Coalition’s lead on cost of living is down to 5 points, from 14 in October, and its two-party-preferred lead is 50.6 to 49.4.
Labor’s primary vote rose to 32%, the Coalition’s remained at 39%. A Newspoll shows Labor leading 51–49 two-party-preferred, with its primary vote rising to 33% and the Coalition’s falling to 37%, and the Greens at 12%. Cost of living rated top concern for 74% of voters.
The context: The new polling comes as the election campaign begins following a federal budget that projects deficits for at least a decade and included a surprise $17 billion “top-up tax cut” set to begin in a year—labelled a bribe by the Coalition, which has pledged to repeal it.
The AFR/Freshwater poll was conducted immediately after the budget and the May 3 election announcement. Newspoll and Resolve reflect voter sentiment at the campaign’s start. YouGov’s MRP model, based on 38,629 surveys, was conducted mostly before the budget and shows a significant turnaround in Labor’s favour.
