Labor retains Dunkley after smaller-than-expected swing to Liberals
Make us a preferred source
Make us a preferred source on Google
The news: Labor has won the Dunkley byelection after the Liberal Party failed to get a big enough swing to take the seat in Melbourne's outer-southeast.
The numbers: With 60% of the vote counted, Labor's Jodie Belyea was head of the Liberal's Nathan Conroy 52.5% to 47.5% two-party-preferred, which equates to a 3.8% swing against the Albanese government.
The Liberals increased their primary vote by seven points from the 2022 election attracting 39% of first preferences, but Labor's primary vote held up on around 40%.
The context: With Australians facing once-in-a-generation cost of living crisis, Liberals were hoping for a bigger swing in a sign that voters blaming Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Dunkley — an outer-suburban seat with many mortgage belt areas — is exactly the king of electorate Opposition leader Peter Dutton is targeting heading into the next election.
But Saturday night's result suggests Dutton is still struggling to attract voters, particualrly in Melbourne where the party holds just three metropolitan seats.
Albanese will welcome the result on his birthday, after some Labor strategists earlier this week feared they were on track to lose the seat.
It is also a sign that voters have accepted Labor's changes to the stage 3 tax cuts, despite the Opposition criticising Albanese for the "broken promise".
Former Liberal strategist, Tony Barry, told the ABC that the fact that Labor's primary vote remained the same was an "incredible achievement", while the result for the Liberals was "patchy".
