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Qantas shares dive after Macquarie downgrade

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The news: Qantas shares fell after Macquarie downgraded its rating on the airline from 'outperform' to 'neutral' as it faces more international competition.

The numbers: Qantas shares fell 2.6% to $9.27 by 2:30pm AEDT, having advanced more than 60% over the last 12 months.

Macquarie downgraded its rating on the airline but hiked its target price from $8.40 to $9.30. It also changed its earnings forecasts by -0.9% in FY25, 1.1% in FY26 and -1.2% in FY27.

The context: Macquarie analysts said Qantas is forecast to deliver "another strong" result for the six months to December, with optimal load factors, and benefits of oil prices and its $400 million buyback.

However, the airline faces more international competition in FY26 with Qatar Airways' 25% investment in Virgin Australia, and Delta Air Lines adding new US-Australia flights.

What they said: "... Qantas' fleet has been aged compared to the ageing that has occurred in both the US and European fleets. Again suggesting a discount is needed to the international airlines," Macquarie analysts said.

The source: Macquarie research


By Hugo Mathers