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Opposition crackdown

Turkish police arrest Erdoğan's main political rival

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The news: A sweeping government crackdown on opposition has seen Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s key political rival and mayor of Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu detained by police.

The numbers: The Turkish lira dropped 10% on the US dollar, while the arrest triggered a selloff in the country’s markets, as Turkey’s main stock index slumped 6.9% in early trading in Istanbul and government bond yields jumped.

Bloomberg reports that state lenders sold around USD8 billion ($12.6 billion) to support the lira, and the nation's stocks tumbled so abruptly they triggered a trading halt.

The context: İmamoğlu’s arrest was reportedly tied to his alleged links to terrorism from support he may have received from a pro-Kurdish political group in his 2024 campaign for re-election as mayor of Istanbul. Prosecutors have labelled the mayor as a "criminal organisation leader suspect," and that their investigation determined him to be the “ringleader” of the criminal organisation.

Turkey's next general election is in 2028, but İmamoğlu was set to be named leader of opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) in a primary vote on Sunday. The appointment could have triggered a snap election.

Responding to the arrest, chair of the CHP party Özgur Özel said “we are face to face with an attempt at a coup against our next president.”

In 2024 İmamoğlu won a second term as Istanbul mayor by over 11 percentage points when the CHP swept local elections, defeating Erdoğan’s party across the country.

Erdoğan’s government has recently launched a far reaching crackdown on opposition that targeted politicians on both sides of the aisle, journalists, and academics. İmamoğlu’s detention came alongside the issue of arrest warrants for a further 99 people, and Istanbul’s governor, appointed by Erdoğan, has banned demonstrations in the city for the coming four days. Turkish authorities also restricted access to social media platforms including X, Instagram and YouTube.

The day before İmamoğlu’s arrest, Istanbul University annulled his degree due to alleged ireegularities, a move which would prevent him from running in presidential elections as Turkish presidents must have completed higher education.

Erdoğan, who has been in power for 22 years has been ratcheting up his grip on power and has adopted an increasingly authoritarian path throughout his leadership.

What they said: In a post on Twitter, İmamoğlu said: “The will of the people cannot be silenced through intimidation or unlawful acts. I stand resolute, entrusting myself not only to the 16 million residents of Istanbul but to the 86 million citizens of Türkiye and all who uphold democracy and justice worldwide. I stand firm in my fight for the fundamental rights and freedoms.”


By Paige McNamee