UBS lifts aluminium and thermal coal price predictions for 2026
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The news: UBS has lifted its near-term price forecasts for aluminium and thermal coal amid ongoing supply risk in the Middle East.
The context: UBS said thermal coal and aluminium are the next commodities impacted, after oil and gas, from the Middle East conflict as higher gas prices increase energy input costs, lifting the broader price curve.
Analyst Lachlan Shaw expects higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty to weigh on aluminium demand, while supply disruptions could push the market into a deficit. UBS now expects the price for aluminium to increase by 13% to USD3,250 a tonne.
Shaw also raised the 2026 thermal coal price by 10% to USD126 a tonne, citing higher gas prices will likely support stronger demand for coal.
In addition, UBS has maintained a buy rating on South32, setting the target price to $5.20, and Whitehaven Coal a sell, with a price target of $7.90.
The source: UBS research note
