UK revises April inflation figures after government data error
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The news: The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revised its initial inflation reading for April due to an error in tax figures provided by a government department.
The numbers: The ONS on Thursday admitted that its headline figure was 0.1 percentage points too high for April, after data published last month showed Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation jumped to 3.5% in April, up from 2.6% in March. The revision found that the country’s consumer price index rose instead by a lower 3.4% in the 12 months to April. The amount still exceeded the 3.3% levels originally forecast by Reuters analysts.
The context: The ONS said an error had been identified “in an extract of the licensed vehicles data provided…by the Department for Transport, used to calculate the April 2025 Vehicle Excise Duty component of consumer prices inflation”.
The incorrect data had overstated the number of vehicles subject to VED rates applicable in the first year of registration. The ONS added that no other periods are affected, and that it will be using the updated figures from May 2025 onwards.
The government body said that it was reviewing its quality assurance processes for external data sources in light of the error.
The ONS has faced increased scrutiny in recent years over long-standing issues with its labour market survey, where questions have been raised about employment, inactivity and productivity indicators, as will as trade data.
What they said: “The trouble for the ONS is that this is part of a developing pattern of weakness which further undermines confidence in the organisation’s capacity to deliver accurate statistics,” Tony Travers, a professor at the London School of Economics told the FT. “Given data and analytical advances in recent decades, this kind of failure is all the more problematic.”
The sources: ONS Statement, FT
