Ukraine, Middle East conflicts major threats to net zero transition: report
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The news: Energy security concerns triggered by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East were headline threats to the net zero transition were key issues highlighted in the International Energy Agency's latest World Energy Outlook.
The numbers: The report found that $2 trillion has been invested into clean energy technologies, almost double the amount that is being put towards coal, oil and gas projects. More than 560 gigawatts of renewable energy was added to electricity grids around the world in 2023 alone.
The context: The World Energy Outlook is an annual report that forecasts trends in global energy supply and demand patterns, including investment and geopolitics, out to 2040. It contains three scenarios that describe the level of investment and policy change required to meet net zero targets and avert dangerous climate change.
The report warned that due to the recent worsening of conflicts in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon and the involvement of Iran, the risks of global disruptions to oil and gas supplies was heightened compared to this time in 2023, when the risks stemming from the first year of the Ukraine war had started to recede.
"The experience of the last few years shows how quickly dependencies can turn into vulnerabilities; a lesson that applies also to clean energy supply chains that have high levels of market concentration," the report stated.
Analysis in the review found that oil and gas resources are currently in oversupply, while there is a large and growing level of investment in the manufacturing of clean energy technologies.
"Clean technology costs are coming down, but maintaining and accelerating momentum behind their deployment in a lower fuel-price world is a different proposition," the report noted.
"How consumer choices and government policies play out will have huge consequences for the future of the energy sector, and for tackling climate change."
What they said: “The IEA identifies the risk that oversized investments in fossil fuels will create a lose-lose situation — driving prices down to create demand to absorb supply increases, in a way that both slows down the energy transition globally, and delivers financial losses for producers,” Amandine Denis-Ryan, CEO of the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Australia said.
“The IEA’s NZE emissions scenario finds no role for gas in buildings by 2050 globally. In Australia, our analysis identified that ending sales of gas appliances would be a minimum action needed to achieve this outcome, and would save consumers billions of dollars.”
Energy expert and former president of BP Australasia, Greg Bourne, said: "Australia doesn’t need any new coal or gas. The International Energy Agency laid out our energy options and all of them point directly to building out clean sources of energy like solar and wind, which Australia has in abundance.
"Rapidly cutting climate pollution from polluting coal and gas is imperative so Australia keeps up with the global trend."
The source: International Energy Agency
