Unemployment rate falls to 3.9% in surprise result
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The news: The jobless rate fell to 3.9% in November, shocking economists who had widely expected a softening in the data lifting the unemployment rate to 4.2%.
The numbers: The unemployment rate recorded a 0.2 percentage point fall, down from 4.1% in October. Employment increased by 36,000 jobs and unemployment decreased by 27,000 roles.
The participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 67%. The employment to population ratio increased slightly, to 64.4%. The underemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%.
Hours worked declined slightly over the month.
The context: The Reserve Bank has a dual mandate, seeking to keep inflation in the 2% to 3% target band and to aim for full employment. The RBA has been keeping a close eye on the tight labour market as a sign of heat in the economy and analysts have expected that a higher-than-forecast unemployment print might encourage the central bank to cut rates sooner rather than later.
The jobs figures have become notoriously hard to predict, with the resiliency in the market continuing to surprise. Few economists expected a strong November jobs report, with most anticipating an uptick in unemployment.
What they said: "In November we saw a higher than usual number of people moving into employment who were unemployed and waiting to start work in October. This contributed to the rise in employment and fall in unemployment," Australian Bureau of Statistics head of labour statistics David Taylor said.
“The recent growth in population has boosted the labour supply as employment has kept up with population growth.
“This month marks the first time in six months when hours worked growth did not match employment growth. Despite the slight fall in hours worked in November, hours grew over the year in line with employment and population growth."
The source: Australian Bureau of Statistics media release
