US polls show neck-and-neck battle, Harris surprises in Iowa
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The news: Fresh polls two days before the election showed US Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump were neck and neck in key battleground states, with a surprise tilt towards Harris in the staunchly conservative state of Iowa.
According to the final set of polls by the New York Times and Siena College released on Sunday, Harris was slightly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump held an advantage in Arizona and had closed the gap in Pennsylvania.
A Des Moines Register poll conducted by Ann Selzer, considered one of the nation’s most reliable pollsters, showed Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Iowa, which he won easily in 2020.
While the margin of error is ±3.4 points and an alternative poll by Emerson College Polling on Saturday contradicted that result, the surprise outcome, bolstered by support from older white women, offered hope to Democrats.
The context: Millions of ballots have already been submitted ahead of the closely contested election on Tuesday. The fresh poll results came as Harris and Trump were making final appeals in battleground states over the weekend.
After a surprise appearance on Saturday Night Live that added visibility to her campaign, Harris was campaigning in Michigan on Sunday, a must-win state for the Democrat where the New York Times/Siena poll is tied.
Trump, meanwhile, was holding rallies in three cities in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia on Sunday.
On Monday, Harris is expected to campaign in Pennsylvania - with Trump also appearing in the swing state that he won in 2016 but lost to the Democrats in 2020, before closing his campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
The numbers: According to the New York Times/Siena poll, Harris has 48% of likely voter support in North Carolina compared to Trump’s 46% and leads narrowly in Georgia and Wisconsin with 48% and 49% respectively.
Trump leads in Arizona with 49% to Harris's 45%, and the candidates are tied at 48% in Pennsylvania and at 47% in Michigan.
The poll was conducted from 24 October to 2 November with 7,879 likely voters.
The sources: The New York Times , The Wall Street Journal , Financial Times , Reuters
