US Treasuries surge after ADP payrolls fall unexpectedly in September
Make us a preferred source
Make us a preferred source on Google
The news: Private sector payrolls made their biggest decline in two and half years in September, with the unexpected drop further signalling a weakening labour market.
The numbers: Companies shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs in September, the biggest slide since March 2023, according to ADP data released Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected an increase of 45,000.
The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 51,000 gain.
In addition to the September decline, data from August was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 3,000.
Yields on 2-year notes, which closely track expected changes in monetary policy, moved seven basis points lower to 3.54% while the rate on benchmark 10-year notes dipped to 4.10%.
The context: The ADP said that it benchmarks data on a data set from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and that ““The most recent release of the QCEW contained a higher-than-normal number of missing or redacted values” for certain industry groups.
Wednesday’s ADP data is likely to be the highest profile jobs report on the US labour market this week as the government shutdown means further data on employment (including the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s September nonfarm payrolls report due Friday) will be delayed.
