US voters head to the polls in razor-thin 2024 election
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The news: Voting has begun in the razor-thin US presidential election, with the first results released in the tiny hamlet of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump each received three votes.
The numbers: The presidential race isn’t decided by the popular vote, but through the Electoral College, a system that allocates each state and Washington, DC’s electoral votes – pre-determined primarily by population - to the winning candidate.
To win, a candidate needs 270 of the country’s 538 electoral votes, which can happen even without winning the overall popular vote, as Trump did in 2016.
If there’s a 269-269 tie, the US House of Representatives picks the president, with each state delegation casting a single vote—a process analysts believe would likely favour Trump.
Polls showed Harris with a narrow national lead just before election day. But opinion polls in the final days of the campaign have shown her deadlocked with Trump in nearly all seven key swing states likely to determine the winner: Nevada (6 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes), Michigan (15 votes) and Arizona (11 votes).
Reuters/Ipsos polling also shows a gender gap, with Harris leading among women by 12 points, and Trump among men by 7 points.
Polls in key battleground states start closing at 7:00pm ET (11am AEDT), beginning with Georgia, followed by North Carolina at 7:30pm ET. In Pennsylvania, polls close at 8:00pm ET, while Michigan and Wisconsin follow from 9:00pm. In the West, Arizona’s polls close at 7:00pm local time (1pm AEDT), with Nevada wrapping up at 10:00pm ET (2:00pm AEDT).
Beyond the presidential race, today's election includes races for the US Senate and House of Representatives. Americans in 10 states will also vote on whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions, including in several states where abortion is currently restricted or banned, such as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota.
The context: About 80 million Americans had already voted, either in person or by mail, before today. However, results in some battleground states may not be known on election night, as counting could extend over several days, particularly in states reliant on mail ballots like Arizona and Nevada.
In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the most populous of the seven battleground states, counting is also expected to stretch past Tuesday night, as workers aren’t allowed to process mail ballots until the morning of election day, creating along backlog of votes.
Both campaigns are braced for a delayed outcome, with legal teams on standby to address post-election challenges.
The Republican campaign has indicated Trump might declare victory on election night if he appears ahead, even if millions of ballots remain uncounted. In recent days, Trump has repeated unsubstantiated claims that any loss would result from "widespread fraud."
The Harris campaign is prepared for a close contest and expects that a final result may take days. Senior Harris officials have said they are focused on "staying calm and confident." Her campaign plans to contest any premature victory claims from Trump.
The Associated Press analyses county-level vote counts alongside other election data to determine results. It has called election winners in the US for over 170 years. However, results aren’t official until each state certifies them, a process typically completed in December.
The sources: Associated Press , Reuters , The New York Times , The Financial Times
