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Briefing

Ominous outlook

Walmart shares slide on weak 2026 guidance

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The news: Walmart shares slid in premarket trading Thursday after the retail giant forecast profit for the fiscal year ending January 2026 would fall below estimates, suggesting an impending pullback by inflation-weary consumers.

The numbers: Shares in Walmart fell as much as 9% in early trading, after the retailer set 2026 fiscal guidance below expectations. Executives said that 2026 targets would see revenue growth come in at 3-4%, below FY24 revenue, which increased by 5.1%.

Walmart's quarterly figures met Wall Street expectations, posting USD180.6 billion ($283.4 billion) in total revenue and USD7.9 billion in operating income in the period ending January 2025.

The context: The US’ largest grocer and discount retailer signalled that incoming tariffs introduced under the Trump administration will test its low-price strategy, as many of the goods it imports from China are likely to be impacted.

John David Rainey, Walmart’s chief financial officer, told the Wall Street Journal that the company will “work really hard to keep prices low” as tariffs increase, and that “we are not immune to what is being suggested.”

Over the past 12 months, the company has experienced a 77% stock price run-up, hitting a new record high of USD105 last week. In its FY24 results the company reported that its e-commerce business saw a 20% increase in sales, driven by in-store pickup and delivery and its online marketplace, while the December holiday period also boosted the quarter.

Walmart also announced it would raise its dividend 13% to USD0.94 per share, its largest increase in over a decade.

What they said: Walmart president and CEO Doug McMillon said: “We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an eCommerce business driven by faster delivery times. We’re gaining market share, our top line is healthy, and we’re in great shape with inventory.”


By Paige McNamee