WTO hikes 2025 trade forecast, warns tariffs will drag on 2026 trade
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The news: The World Trade Organisation hiked its forecast for global trade growth in 2025, but warned that the effects of higher tariffs are likely to be felt next year.
The numbers: The WTO said global trade volume growth is expected to hit 2.4% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 0.9% in the body’s August report. The WTO’s outlook for trade volume in 2026 however has been downgraded to 0.5% from 1.8%.
The context: “Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the global economy cools and as the full impact of higher tariffs is finally felt for a full year,” the WTO said.
The body also noted that accelerated spending on AI-related products, particularly in Asia and North America has helped to buoy global merchandise trade this year.
“With higher tariffs now in place and trade policy still highly uncertain, front-loading of purchases is expected to unwind as accumulated inventories are drawn down and as GDP growth slows,” the WTO report said.
“Possible signs of weakness in trade and manufacturing output have been observed in developed economies, including reduced business and consumer confidence and slower growth in employment and incomes,” the WTO added.
What they said: WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "Countries' measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world--particularly among emerging economies--helped ease trade setbacks in 2025.”
The source: World Trade Organisation
