Biden might voluntarily exit by weekend, sources tell Axios

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

---

1.

When, not If: “Several” top Democrats have privately said President Biden is expected to drop out of the presidential race as soon as this weekend due to mounting pressure from party leaders and close allies, according to an Axios report citing unnamed sources. Party leaders, friends and key donors believe, and expect to convince Biden, 81, that he can’t win, change public perceptions about his age and acuity, or secure congressional majorities. The President, who is recovering from Covid at his beach home in Rehoboth, Delaware, remains publicly committed, but the pressure is intensifying. Recent polls show him losing in all of the battleground states. An AP poll also showed nearly two-thirds of Democrats want him to withdraw. Former President Barrack Obama told allies Biden’s re-election chances have greatly diminished, The Washington Post reported citing people briefed on his thinking. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other key figures have also reportedly urged Biden to seriously consider stepping down. Axios reports that top aides, including those who previously encouraged Biden to continue after his terrible debate performance on 27 June, are now saying it's a matter of when, not if, Biden will announce his withdrawal from the race. (Axios)

2.

Shooter message: Former President Donald Trump’s would-be assassin purportedly left a message on the gaming platform Steam stating: "July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds," ABC News reported citing multiple law enforcement sources. Investigators are still examining the motive behind the attempted assassination and are focusing on the message left on the gaming platform by suspect Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, the sources said. They also found internet searches for Trump and President Joe Biden on Crooks' phone. Authorities are piecing together a timeline of the attack at Saturday’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Crooks was killed by Secret Service snipers. John Cohen, an ABC News contributor and former head of intelligence at the Department of Homeland Security, said Crooks' actions likely stemmed from mental health issues, ideological beliefs and personal grievances. Investigators have not found any clear political motive or terrorist affiliations in Crooks' digital footprint. Despite being a registered Republican and having donated to a progressive group, his views remain unclear. (ABC News)

3.

Meta specs: Facebook’s parent Meta Platforms is in talks to buy a 5% stake in eyeglass manufacturing giant EssilorLuxottica, the company it collaborates with to produce Ray-Ban smart glasses, sources told the Wall Street Journal. A 5% stake could be worth around €4.5 billion ($7.3 billion), although the discussions might not lead to a deal, the paper said. Meta wants to build on the success of their new generation of Ray-Ban Meta glasses, which have outperformed expectations selling more in a few months than the old ones did in two years. The glasses integrate features like photo-taking, music playback and social media feeds, and are a key part of Meta’s hardware strategy. A third generation of the smart eyewear is planned for release in 2025. Meanwhile, the Franco-Italian group said this week it was acquiring the streetwear brand Supreme from Vans parent VF for USD1.5 billion, and an 80% stake in German ophthalmic diagnostic solutions company Heidelberg Engineering. (The Wall Street Journal)

4.

Mini AI bot: ChatGPT maker OpenAI released GPT-4o mini, a smaller AI model designed to be more affordable, energy-efficient and broaden its customer base. The model is over 60% cheaper than its GPT-3.5 Turbo version, Reuters reported citing OpenAI. The new mini version scored 82% on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark, outperforming Google's Gemini Flash and Anthropic's Claude Haiku. GPT-4o mini will be available to ChatGPT's Free, Plus, and Team users from Thursday, with enterprise access starting next week. Reuters also reported this week that OpenAI is working on a project to enhance its AI technology for advanced tasks such as autonomous internet navigation and “deep research.” The secretive project, code-named “Strawberry,” aims to improve AI's forward planning capabilities, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Reuters)

5.

Trump closes: Donald Trump will formally accept the Republican presidential nomination tonight at the final day of the party’s convention. Less than a week after surviving an assassination attempt, the former President will mark his political comeback with a prime-time acceptance speech expected shortly after 11:00 am AEST. After surviving the shooting, Trump said he had thrown out an address he had already written, promising words to unite the nation. “This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together,” he said Monday. “The speech will be a lot different, a lot different than it would’ve been two days ago.” The address will close the convention and will be preceded by monologues from varied supporters included Senator Steve Daines, the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and the wrestler Hulk Hogan. Notable absences include Ivanka and Melania Trump. It comes after Ohio Senator JD Vance accepted the vice-presidential nomination a day earlier. (The New York Times)

6.

ECB rates: European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said the next interest-rate meeting is "wide open," suggesting another rate cut might be considered based on upcoming inflation data. Despite a slight dip to 2.5% in June, inflation pressures persist and ECB policymakers are increasingly wondering if they can cut interest rates only once more this year, Bloomberg reported citing, unnamed sources. Speaking after the ECB kept its deposit rate unchanged at 3.75%, Lagarde said the next policy decision will hinge on key data including on wage growth, corporate profit margins and productivity. She expects a clearer picture by September, which will determine if disinflation is progressing as needed to achieve the 2% inflation target by late 2025. Markets pared bets on ECB rate cuts, pricing in 0.44 percentage points of easing for the remainder of the year, down from 0.47 points previously. Bloomberg economists anticipate the next cut in December. (Bloomberg)

7.

Cool labour: Initial applications for US unemployment benefits surged last week by the most since early May, new Labour Department data showed. Continuing claims also grew, adding to evidence of a softening labour market as it becomes harder for the unemployed to find new jobs. Initial claims increased by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 in the week ending 13 July, the highest level since August 2023 and ahead of the 230,000 expected by economists polled by Reuters. Hit by Hurricane Beryl, Texas claims jumped by over 11,500, driven by temporary disruptions and auto plant closures. Continuing claims, representing those receiving benefits, rose by 20,000 to 1.87 million, the highest since November 2021. Combined with a recent easing of inflation, the weakening job market strengthens the argument for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the coming months. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)

8.

Mall inferno: A fire at a shopping mall in Zigong, southwestern China, killed 16 people on Wednesday, state media reported. Firefighters and rescuers mobilised shortly after the blaze broke out at the 14-storey commercial building, saving 75 individuals, the Xinhua news agency reported. A preliminary investigation showed the fire was caused by construction activities, Reuters reported. But further investigation was underway to pinpoint the exact cause. Videos on social media showed thick black smoke and intense flames engulfing the building, which houses a department store, offices, restaurants and a movie theatre. Fire hazards remain a significant issue in China, which has experienced several deadly fires in recent months, including incidents in Jiangxi and Nanjing. (Associated Press)