There are some obvious parallels between Canada and Australia. Both are geographically enormous and wealthy Anglophone resource economies living in the long shadow of bigger trading partners — Canada under America’s elbow and Australia tangled up with China. This weekend, Peter Dutton will be hoping the similarities end there.
The Canadian Liberals today pulled off one of the most remarkable political turnarounds in recent memory. They are projected to win the country’s federal election despite polls suggesting as recently as December that voters were preparing to banish the three-term government to the wilderness.
It is too early to tell whether it will be a majority or minority government, but the smooth-talking Goldman Sachs alumnus turned central banker Mark Carney will continue in the role of prime minister, now with an electoral mandate.
You could zoom out and frame the result as the product of trends like the easing of post-Covid inflationary pressures, or a natural calming of the bloodthirsty mood voters have shown toward incumbents in recent years. The smart (and desperate) decision to have Justin Trudeau step aside was also clearly an influence. But the major factor, unquestionably, has been Donald Trump.
