China strikes back ahead of Trump tariff call

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

China targets: China has revived antitrust investigations into Google and Nvidia and according to the Financial Times is also considering a new probe into Intel. The State Administration for Market Regulation opened a competition investigation into Google, that according to FT sources will focus on its Android operating system – used by some Chinese phone makers like Xiaomi, Lenovo and Vivo, and its impact. Nvidia has been under investigation since December over its 2019 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, and a probe into Intel is being discussed, the paper said. It comes as China responded to US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. In retaliation, China also announced tariffs including 15% on US coal and LNG, 10% on oil and agricultural machines, export controls on tungsten-related materials, and blacklisted Calvin Klein owner PVH Group and biotech company Illumina. Trump will speak with President Xi Jinping later today. (Capital Brief)(FT)(NYT)

2.

Fewer jobs: US job openings fell in December to 7.6 million, the lowest in three months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS report. That was down from November’s revised 8.16 million and among the lowest estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The decline was led by professional and business services, healthcare, social assistance and finance. Meanwhile, Estée Lauder, Archer-Daniels-Midland and Salesforce are cutting jobs. Salesforce is laying off over 1,000 employees while hiring AI-focused sales roles. Estée Lauder will eliminate up to 7,000 positions as part of CEO Stéphane de La Faverie’s restructuring plan after a USD590 million ($942.79 million) loss in the fourth quarter of 2024 and an expected 10-12% sales decline in early 2025. ADM plans to cut 600-700 jobs globally in response to a projected third consecutive year of profit decline, aiming for up to USD750 million in cost savings over five years. Elsewhere, Citi’s Jane Fraser is reportedly bucking the trend among banking rivals, backing hybrid work by sticking to a three-day office minimum. (Capital Brief)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)

3.

Profit play: Spotify reported its first-ever annual profit and said it expects its 1Q profit for 2025 to exceed market estimates, driven by user growth, price hikes and cost-cutting. The Swedish audio streamer posted a net income of €1.14 billion ($1.90 billion) for 2024 and forecasts first-quarter operating income of €548 million, above analysts' forecasts of €450.6 million. Spotify’s shares rose as much as 12.65% to USD618.55. Meanwhile, Palantir’s stock soared as much as 27.68% to USD106.91 as Peter Thiel’s data analytics company posted forecast-beating results, raised its outlook and forecast a windfall from Donald Trump’s government overhaul. CEO Alex Karp told analysts that Elon Musk’s controversial DOGE efforts to cut costs would be “good for Americans… very good for Palantir… (even if) some people will get their heads cut off." Elsewhere in media, Fox announced a new streaming service featuring Fox News and Fox Sports content by the end of 2025. No details on pricing or content scope were provided, with CEO Lachlan Murdoch setting modest subscriber expectations. (Capital Brief)(Spotify statement)(Spotify presentation)(Bloomberg)

4.

Apollo’s credit: Apollo Global Management’s fourth-quarter profit beat expectations, with adjusted net income up 15% to USD1.36 billion ($2.19 billion) or USD2.22 per share. Analysts had expected USD1.89 per share, according to LSEG estimates. Fee-related earnings hit a record USD554 million, up 21%, while spread-related earnings rose 12% to USD841 million. Assets under management grew 15% to USD751 billion, including USD33 billion in inflows. Apollo raised a record USD12 billion from private wealth in 2024, lifting assets in that segment by 50%. Bloomberg reported it has built a USD5 billion multi-strategy credit fund with a 30-year maturity in a move to attract insurance-industry money. “Entering 2025, our growth strategy is clear, our team is focused on execution, and we are playing to win,” CEO Marc Rowan said. Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs has reportedly cut its alumni fund buy-in by 90% to USD25k, courting former partners as it expands its private markets footprint. (Capital Brief)(Apollo release)(Bloomberg)

5.

Senate shot: The Senate Finance Committee voted 14-13 along party lines to advance Robert F Kennedy Jr's nomination as health secretary to the full Senate. Senator Bill Cassidy, a doctor and Republican from Louisiana who is up for re-election in 2026, provided the key swing vote to support Kennedy after securing "serious commitments" from the Trump administration, he said. Trump urged lawmakers to back Kennedy ahead of the vote. In the full Senate, Kennedy can lose up to three Republican votes if all Democrats oppose him, with Vice President JD Vance able to cast the deciding vote in a tie. No Republican has said they plan to oppose him, but according to the WSJ, potential defectors include senators Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins. (WSJ)(NYT)

6.

Convict exports: El Salvador has offered to house violent criminals deported from the US, including those of any nationality, in exchange for a fee, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced. The proposal, confirmed by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, also includes incarcerating US citizens. Legal experts say deporting US citizens is illegal, raising questions about feasibility. Bukele said the fee would sustain El Salvador’s prison system, including the country’s largest and newest prison, the 40,000-capacity Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT). The announcement drew criticism from human rights groups, who highlighted El Salvador’s harsh prison conditions. Critics argue the proposal lacks legal basis and violates international laws on migrant rights. Bukele’s mass incarceration policies have significantly reduced crime but have been widely condemned for human rights abuses. (CNN)(NYT)

7.

Offer accepted: More than 20,000 US federal workers have accepted the Trump administration’s “Fork in the Road” deferred resignation offer, allowing them to quit while continuing to receive pay and benefits until September. The administration, with Elon Musk overseeing government efficiency efforts, had reportedly aimed to cut 10% of the 2.3 million civilian federal workforce. According to media reports citing a memo, the General Services Administration (GSA) warned employees that layoffs across the federal government are likely after the offer expires this Thursday. The Washington Post reported the GSA’s Federal Acquisition Service has been asked to cut its program by 50%. New contract agreements require some employees to work until 28 February and acknowledge that pay beyond 14 March depends on congressional funding. Workers must also waive legal claims against the government. The administration is defending the offer as a “rare, generous opportunity,” while unions call it misleading and say it pressures workers to quit. (Bloomberg)(NPR)(WaPo)

8.

Orebro horror: A gunman killed about 10 people at Risbergska school, an adult education centre in Orebro, Sweden, before dying at the scene, police said. The attack, which began around 12:33 local time on Tuesday, also left several injured, with at least four undergoing surgery. Police believe the suspect, a man not previously known to authorities, acted alone. They have ruled out terrorism but warned the death toll could rise. Nearby schools were locked down for security and hospitals cleared emergency space for victims. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called it “a very painful day for all in Sweden,” while Orebro police chief Roberto Eid Forest described it as “a nightmare.” The investigation is ongoing. (BBC)