Hanson overtakes Ley in exclusive preferred PM poll

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

1.

Preference for Pauline: One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has overtaken Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as preferred prime minister according to exclusive new polling, which comes as Liberal MPs weigh up a move against their embattled leader. Tuesday’s Capital Brief/DemosAU poll finds Ley (16%) trailing Hanson (26%) as preferred prime minister, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese comfortably ahead with 39% and 19% undecided. It is the first nationwide poll to include Hanson in the preferred prime minister metric since her party drew level with the Coalition on primary votes last month, a trend first revealed in an earlier DemosAU poll. The Capital Brief/DemosAU poll was conducted before last week’s chaos in federal parliament, which intensified speculation that Liberal MPs will move to oust Ley in coming weeks. It also predates the Coalition split late on 21 January, meaning the 21% primary vote attributed to the former Coalition is now divided between the Liberals and Nationals. (Capital Brief)

2.

Partial shutdown: Donald Trump said he may reduce the number of federal agents in Minnesota if state leaders increase cooperation with immigration enforcement, following what Governor Tim Walz described as a “productive” call. After the call, the US president said he and Walz “actually” seemed to be on a “similar wavelength”. The apparent shift came after federal officers fatally shot 37-year-old US citizen Alex Pretti during a protest in Minneapolis on Saturday in the second such killing this month. That sparked nationwide demonstrations, legal action and calls for de-escalation from more than 60 CEOs. Walz’s office said Trump agreed to consider working “in a more coordinated fashion” and look into lowering agent numbers. The federal operation has deployed over 3,000 federal agents since December and is now being challenged in court by Minnesota and the cities of Minneapolis and St Paul. The judge weighing the request to pause the immigration crackdown has called the case “shockingly unusual” and said she would move quickly. Pretti’s shooting also prompted Democrats to oppose funding for the Department of Homeland Security, increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown by the end of the week. Meanwhile, Trump sent White House border czar Tom Homan to Minnesota, signalling tensions with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who has led the operation and labelled both shootings acts of domestic terrorism within hours. (WSJ)(Reuters)(AP)

3.

Frosty boost: Natural gas and gold prices surged to historic levels, as extreme cold disrupted US energy supply and market anxiety lifted demand for safe-haven assets. Natural-gas futures jumped around 30% after last week’s record 70% rise, reaching nearly USD7 per million British thermal units, their highest since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to the Wall Street Journal. Front-month contracts (futures for the nearest delivery of natural gas) peaked at USD7.384, according to Bloomberg. Spot prices soared even higher in key regions: USD61.48 in New York City, USD50.50 in New England and USD30.72 in Louisiana, the EIA said. EBW Analytics reported weekend averages at Henry Hub, the Louisiana pipeline hub that sets the US benchmark, reached their highest levels in 25 years, as freezing wells cut daily output by more than 17 billion cubic feet, or over 15% of total US production. Gold futures rose past USD5,000 a troy ounce for the first time, while silver gained nearly 15% amid US shutdown risks and tariff threats. USA Rare Earth shares jumped after the US government agreed to invest USD1.6 billion for a 10% stake. And Nvidia’s USD2 billion injection into CoreWeave lifted its bond prices by 2 to3%. Major US stock indexes rose, while airline stocks fell as storms disrupted flights. (Bloomberg)(WSJ)(Reuters)

4.

AI appetite: AI chipmaker Nvidia invested an additional USD2 billion ($2.9 billion) into AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave, to accelerate the buildout of more than 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030. Nvidia purchased CoreWeave Class A common stock at USD87.20 per share, the companies said in a statement on Monday. The companies said they will build new AI factories on Nvidia’s computing-platform technology, developed and operated by CoreWeave. The companies plan to leverage Nvidia’s financial strength to accelerate CoreWeave’s procurement of land, power and shell to build the factories. Nvidia said that its investment reflects its confidence in CoreWeave’s business, team and growth strategy as a cloud platform built on Nvidia infrastructure. Nvidia founder and chief Jensen Huang said: “Together, we’re racing to meet extraordinary demand for Nvidia AI factories”. Shares in CoreWeave were trading up almost 10% at 11:35am ET (3:35am AEDT Tuesday) while Nvidia slipped 0.4%. (CoreWeave)(Capital Brief)(CNBC)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)

5.

Long(o) legacy: In his final push as chair of ASIC, Joe Longo called for action on financial advertising to protect Australians from “ruinous” investments, as the regulator outlines its top priorities for the year. “We need to have a debate about whether there needs to be restrictions on financial product advertising, because a lot of people are responding to that in ways that aren't in their interest,” Longo told Capital Brief. While ASIC does not set advertising rules, Longo’s comments highlight the regulator’s growing concern about several key risks that sit just outside its direct control. With just four months left in the role, he has become increasingly vocal about those risks. Mortgage origination is another area Longo described as “a constant source of issues for us”, adding that during 2026 ASIC will also examine operational failures by superannuation funds, consumer harm linked to AI, cyber breaches and the resilience of legacy systems. Longo told the AFR that his “top priority” before leaving the role in May is to see “tangible progress” in the ASX. (Capital Brief)(AFR)

6.

Hostage remains: Israel recovered the remains of Master Sgt Ran Gvili, the last Israeli hostage held in Gaza, marking what the Israeli military called the completion of a key war objective and paving the way for the reopening of the Rafah border crossing. Gvili was a police officer killed during the October 7, 2023 Hama-led attack. His body was located in a cemetery on the outskirts of Gaza City during a weekend search and identified through dental records, a military official told the Financial Times. “With this, all hostages have been returned from the Gaza Strip to the State of Israel,” the Israeli army said in a statement. Netanyahu called the recovery an “unbelievable achievement”. Hamas said it had provided information that helped locate the remains and that the recovery “confirms Hamas’ commitment to the plan.” Israel said Rafah will reopen once the recovery operation is completed, as agreed under the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire. (Reuters)(FT)

7.

Forward guidance: All eyes are on the release of inflation data this week ahead of the Reserve Bank's February rate decision. While some economists — notably those at UBS, HSBC and Bank of America — pulled forward rate rise expectations to next month due to stronger than expected unemployment figures and jobs growth, many others are waiting for this final data release before finalising their calls. CBA is tipping a 0.3% monthly rise for the headline figure with an annual rate at 3.8%, ANZ is tipping headline inflation at 0.5% and 3.5% for the quarter and year respectively. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver is expecting a fall in quarterly inflation to 0.6% over the quarter and a rise in annual inflation to 3.6% in headline terms. Goldman Sachs economists are among those still expecting rates to remain on hold this year, however, they said in a note: "recent stronger data on inflation and the labour market have increased the risk of a rate hike as soon as February". (Capital Brief)

8.

Strike ready: A US aircraft carrier and supporting warships entered the Middle East, expanding Trump’s options for defending US forces or launching potential strikes against Iran, Reuters reported. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is now positioned to act within days if ordered, officials confirmed to CNN. Trump, who announced the deployment of an “armada” last week, said he hopes not to use it. Iran and its regional allies have responded with escalating warnings. The Iranian defence ministry said any attack would be met with a “more decisive and more painful” response. The commander of Iran’s navy said forces are “fully prepared”, according to Iranian news outlet ISNA. Pro-Iranian groups including Hezbollah and Kataib Hezbollah called on loyalists to prepare for war, The New York Times reported. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff were exchanging messages on an “informal” basis, citing Iran’s Ambassador to Geneva on ISNA. It follows a violent crackdown on nationwide protests in Iran, with rights groups reporting thousands killed. Trump had repeatedly threatened to intervene if the killings continued, but earlier this month he said he had been assured there were no current plans for executions. (Bloomberg)(NYT)(Reuters)(CNN)