When Labor won the Aston byelection in 2023, becoming the first government to take a seat off an opposition in a century, there was consensus that it was comfortably on track to win a second term.
But events since then — the failure of the Voice referendum, stubborn cost-of-living pressures and growing questions about Anthony Albanese’s judgement — have well and truly opened the door for the opposition.
The prospect of a Peter Dutton prime ministership after the next election, which was considered very unlikely just a few months ago, is now a possibility according to polls. Users of crypto betting platform Polymarket even put Dutton's odds of winning at 57% over Albanese's 40%, though betting volumes are still very low.
But what does his path to victory look like?
Assuming the Coalition wins the two seats where MPs Russell Broadbent and Andrew Gee defected to the crossbench this term, Dutton would need another 18 for an outright majority. A victory of that scale would place him in the pantheon of Liberal greats, but even with the momentum shift of the last few months it still seems a tall ask.
