Iran reviews US peace proposal that would reopen Hormuz

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

1.

US-Iran war: The US and Iran are closing in on a deal to end the conflict, US and Pakistani officials said, with Washington presenting Tehran a one-page memorandum through Pakistani mediators and expecting a response within 48 hours, Axios first reported. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told ISNA that Tehran was reviewing the proposal and would respond via Pakistan. But Iran’s Tasnim news agency, close to the Revolutionary Guards, quoted an unnamed official saying it contained “unacceptable provisions”.  Donald Trump, meanwhile, warned: “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” He also told the New York Post it was "too soon” for face-to-face talks, and told reporters at the White House that Iran “want to make a deal very much." The proposed deal would formally end the war, open a 30-day negotiation period, gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift US sanctions, release frozen Iranian funds and seek a moratorium on uranium enrichment, Reuters reported citing a Pakistani source and another briefed on the mediation. Meanwhile, the US military “disabled” an Iran-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman after its crew ignored repeated warnings, US Central Command said. And France deployed its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier toward the Red Sea to prepare for a potential international escort mission, the French defence ministry said. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(WSJ)(NYT)(FT)

2.

Tank rally: Oil fell as much as 11% to an intraday low of USD96.75 a barrel, before settling around USD101, down 7.8%, as reports of a potential US-Iran peace deal swept markets. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% and the Nasdaq 2% to fresh records, Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 2.2% and MSCI’s All-Country World Index climbed 1.1% to a new record. AI and chip stocks drove much of the gains. AMD surged 18.6% to a record after forecasting strong second-quarter revenue on robust data centre demand. Nvidia gained 5.7% and Samsung surged 14.4%, topping a USD1 trillion market cap. Morgan Stanley launched cryptocurrency trading on its E*Trade platform at 50 basis points per transaction, undercutting rivals Coinbase, Robinhood and Charles Schwab. Disney shares also rose after beating second-quarter estimates. AI data centre developer Hut 8 signed a 15-year data centre lease worth USD9.8 billion in Texas. Super Micro shares surged after it posted stronger-than-expected forecasts for fourth-quarter revenue and profit. Meanwhile, US private payrolls rose 109,000 in April, the largest increase in 15 months, according to ADP, though economists warned the Iran conflict and inflation pose downside risks. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(WSJ)