Iran warns USD200 oil as IEA members agree record emergency reserve release

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Crude reality: The IEA’s 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, in the largest emergency oil release in history. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said the challenges were “unprecedented in scale.” On day 12 of the US-Israel war on Iran, three commercial ships were struck near the Strait of Hormuz, bringing total attacks on shipping to 13 since late February, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported. Iran’s IRGC naval commander Alireza Tangsiri claimed responsibility for at least one of the attacks in a social media post, saying the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree had “ignored the warnings” in attempting to cross the strait. Three of the ship’s crew remain missing. Iran’s military command separately announced it was shifting from reciprocal strikes to continuous “strike upon strike” operations, adding it would not allow “a single litre of oil” to pass through the strait to the US, Israel or their partners. “Get ready for the oil barrel to be at USD200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised,” spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari said. Meanwhile, for the second time this week Trump suggested the war would end soon, telling Axios there’s “practically nothing left to target,“ only to then tell reporters “we’re not finished yet.” In brief remarks Trump also said “I don’t know about that” when asked about New York Times reporting that a preliminary Pentagon investigation found US forces responsible for the strike on a school in Minab that killed at least 175 people, mostly children. Also, ABC News reported the FBI had warned California police departments that Iran aspired to launch drone attacks from a vessel off the US West Coast, citing an alert reviewed by the outlet. (WSJ)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)(BBC)(NYT)(Capital Brief)

2.

Stay away: Wall Street stocks fell and oil prices rose as markets focused on escalating risks from the war involving Iran, with investors largely looking past a tame inflation report and the record release of emergency crude reserves by the IEA. US crude topped about USD87 a barrel and Brent rose above USD92. US equities fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling about 0.82% in late trading in New York, the S&P 500 was about 0.31% lower and the Nasdaq down about 0.15%. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, HSBC and Standard Chartered closed or emptied Gulf offices after Iran threatened to target US- and Israel-linked financial institutions. Financial stocks were also pressured by concerns the Middle East conflict could lift inflation and hurt growth, alongside worries about AI disrupting financial services and bad loans in private credit portfolios. Energy shares outperformed as crude prices climbed. Adding to the pressure, JPMorgan moved to restrict private credit lending, Apollo said it will move to daily valuation reporting for its funds, and Bloomberg reported Cliffwater’s USD33 billion private credit fund was forced to cap redemptions at 7% after investors sought to redeem 14% of shares in the first quarter, citing a letter to investors. Elsewhere US consumer prices rose 2.4% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, though the data preceded the economic fallout from the conflict. And Oracle shares surged after providing stronger-than-expected revenue guidance tied to demand for AI computing. (Capital Brief)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)(WSJ)

3.

Cockroach watch: JPMorgan Chase marked down the value of certain loans held by private credit funds and restricted some lending against them, according to reports. The bank informed private credit lenders it had reduced the value of some loans in their portfolios that serve as collateral, limiting how much they can borrow against them going forward, the Financial Times first reported. One source told Reuters the bank reviewed its financing portfolio “name by name and then sector by sector” and applied valuation marks to some loans, including those with underlying software exposure. The marks refer to adjustments to the loans’ valuations based on the collateral of the fund, the source said, adding the adjustments were not significant. The decisions impact a small cohort of borrowers, have not triggered any material margin calls so far and were done to pre-emptively reduce the amount of credit available to the funds, the FT reported citing the sources. The move is the latest sign of stress in the once-booming but opaque industry, coming after Jamie Dimon last October warned more “cockroaches” would surface. Scrutiny has intensified particularly on loans to software companies, a major borrower base for private credit lenders amid concern AI could disrupt their business models. Elsewhere, Apollo will start reporting monthly NAVs for its private credit funds and eventually move to daily valuations and third-party pricing, asset management co-president John Zito told Bloomberg. (FT)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)(Capital Brief)

4.

Risk appetite: Australia’s big four banks are quietly tightening up their risk controls and referral programs as their networks of accountants, lawyers, real estate agents and financial planners come under increasing regulatory scrutiny. Capital Brief can reveal that Westpac removed the only two aggregators in its program in August last year as it looked to mitigate risks associated with the long-standing but controversial programs, and insulate itself from fraud uncovered at its RAMS subsidiary. The bank said it was also increasing its investment in monitoring and detection of fraud as all of the banks look to get on top of rising criminal activity. A spokesperson for the Commonwealth Bank confirmed the bank has also “tightened” its referral program in recent months to close loopholes the lender had identified — but declined to discuss specific measures so as to protect the integrity of the changes, while ANZ has completed recent internal and independent external reviews of its introducer program. (Capital Brief)

5.

IPO spotlight: Hong Kong authorities raided the local unit of Citic Securities and Guotai Junan International Holdings, in a high-profile escalation of scrutiny into the city’s financial sector, according to reports citing unnamed sources. Authorities on Tuesday raided the firms’ equity capital markets divisions and took at least one senior executive away for questioning, sources told Bloomberg, Reuters and Caixin Global. It comes amid heightened regulatory scrutiny of potential misconduct in Hong Kong’s equity-financing business following a surge in initial public offerings in 2025. Hong Kong was the world’s top destination for IPOs in 2025, with total equity fundraising rising 164% to USD103 billion ($144.2 billion), according to Hong Kong stock exchange data cited by Reuters. Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission launched a probe into Citic’s local unit linked to its handling of some recent share sale transactions. On Tuesday, the regulator raided the Hong Kong office of CLSA, an offshore arm of Beijing-headquartered Citic, the sources told Reuters. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(Caixin Global)

6.

Socials sting: Meta disabled 150,000 accounts as part of an international law enforcement sting against scams and organised online crime, leading to 21 arrests. Coordinating with local authorities, Meta targeted scam centres in an operation spanning the Asia-Pacific region, US and UK, the social media giant said on Wednesday evening. The campaign between the FBI and Department of Justice’s Scam Center Strike Force marks the second operation since December to disrupt online crime networks. The operation involved organisations across more than 10 countries including Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Indonesia, Japan and Korea, and involved rival messaging app LINE. In December the group removed 59,000 accounts, pages and groups from Meta’s platforms, and issued six arrest warrants. Alongside the initiative, Meta unveiled new tools on its platforms, including push alerts on suspicious new friend alerts on Facebook, flagging suspect links on WhatsApp and the option to screen possible scam activity with AI on Messenger. (Capital Brief)

7.

Waiting game: A final review of a highly anticipated regime to bring crypto exchanges and digital wallets under the Australian Financial Services Licence is expected on Monday. The scheme before the Senate is expected to give crypto exchanges and digital wallets the confidence to handle stablecoins, but industry players think banks will need greater regulatory certainty before they get onboard. Some industry members aren’t expecting legislated stablecoin clarity until at least the first half of 2027, given the second half of payment system modernisation reforms hasn’t yet been released by Treasury. Without the full suite of reforms, the industry argues that Australians will miss out on the full productivity benefits of lower transaction fees and faster transactions. Fiona Murray, managing director of Asia Pacific for Ripple, told Capital Brief that the most important hurdle in the way of adoption from banks and other institutional partners is having the “opportunity to engage with a regulated counterparty”. (Capital Brief)

8.

Take a hike: Qantas’ move to pass on higher fuel costs to its passengers this week may have infuriated its customers — but the ensuing spike in its share price suggests companies willing to respond decisively to ongoing turbulence in global oil markets will be rewarded by their investors. “I think we will start to see a lot of ASX companies come out and update market expectations,” Wilson Asset Management investment analyst Hailey Kim told Capital Brief. “By that I don’t mean earnings downgrades, but just in terms of how we should think about their revenue and earnings.” On Tuesday, fellow flag carrier Air New Zealand confirmed that it had suspended its FY26 guidance, warning of “unprecedented volatility” in global jet fuel markets. A spokesperson for Virgin Australia told Capital Brief that it is “closely monitoring developments in the Middle East” and will “continue to assess the implications of long-term fuel price increases”. (Capital Brief)