Markets dip as Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariffs loom

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Liberation day: Global stocks ended the quarter on a downbeat note ahead of US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, set for Wednesday, which will impose reciprocal imposts on all trading partners. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were headed for their worst quarterly drops since 2022, despite a volatile session in which the S&P erased a 1.7% loss. Asian markets fell, with Japan’s Nikkei plunging 4.05% to close nearly 12% below its December high. Europe’s Stoxx 600 lost 1.5%, and the FTSE 100 shed 0.9%. Spot gold hit a new high of USD3,128.06, surpassing Friday’s USD3,100 record, as investors sought safe havens. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the CBOE Volatility Index — jumped to a two-week high of 22.66. Goldman Sachs raised the likelihood of a US recession to 35% from 20%, cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 2%, and now expects three Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, shares of loss-making conservative cable channel Newsmax exploded 683% on its NYSE debut, echoing meme stock mania. (Reuters)(FT)(Capital Brief)

2.

Le Banned: A French court on Monday convicted far-right leader Marine Le Pen of embezzlement and barred her from seeking public office for five years, ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race unless overturned on appeal. The ruling, with immediate effect, sentenced Le Pen to four years’ imprisonment—two suspended and two to be served under house arrest—and fined her €100,000 ($172,090). Judges found Le Pen and others diverted €4.4 million in European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016 to pay National Rally staff instead of EU parliamentary aides. The chief judge said Le Pen had been “at the heart” of “a system” that “amounts to a distortion of the democratic process.” The party was fined €2 million, half deferred. Le Pen, a front-runner to win the 2027 election, left the courtroom before the full sentence was read. Her lawyer said the “appalling” ruling would be appealed. (Capital Brief)(AP)

3.

Contract carnage: The Trump administration’s push to axe spending on consultants has hit Deloitte hardest, with at least 129 contracts terminated or slimmed down—more than double that of any other consultancy—according to a Financial Times analysis of data from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Deloitte is one of 10 consulting firms ordered to submit a plan to save the government money by end of day Monday (Tuesday AEDT), either by cutting prices or identifying contracts that are not “mission critical”. The 10 firms are on course to bill the federal government USD65 billion ($103.1 billion) in 2025 and future years, according to the Trump administration. Deloitte’s cancelled contracts span nearly every agency targeted by DOGE and are projected to save USD372 million. That excludes a cancelled USD1.9 billion IRS IT services contract. PwC spinoff Guidehouse leads in claimed savings at USD376 million. (FT)

4.

Federal election: Anthony Albanese will continue his healthcare-themed blitz in Adelaide today, where he will unveil a new “state of the art” centre service in the city’s south. For the second day in a row, the prime minister will appear alongside a popular state Labor leader — this time SA Premier Peter Malinauskas — to unveil $300 million in funding toward the Flinders HealthCARE Centre. The funding will be split evenly between the Commonwealth and Flinders University, with the Commonwealth’s share of funding added to the 2025 PEFO statement if Labor wins the May 3 election. Further south, opposition leader Peter Dutton will promise to increase federal funding by $1.5 billion for the stalled Melbourne Airport Rail Link. If elected, the Coalition will increase funding for the project to $6.5 billion, the full 50% share of the estimated $13 billion cost of the rail link. This will be matched with $1.5 billion by a future Victorian Coalition government if the party is also elected at the state level. (Capital Brief)(Capital Brief)

5.

China relations: Australia’s defence and national security agencies are tracking a high-tech Chinese research ship off the coast of southern Australia, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese saying he “would prefer that it wasn’t there”. The Tan Suo Yi Han is currently outside Australia’s exclusive economic zone off the coast of southern Australia and is heading west. The vessel departed Wellington, New Zealand last week and has not currently reported any intentions to visit an Australian port. The automatic identification system is transmitting information that the vessel will arrive in China on 30 April 2025. Last month, vessels from China's navy conducted a circumnavigation of a large part of Australia and hosted live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea (including activities in Australia's exclusive economic zone). Albanese told reporters in Perth that he'd "prefer" the ship wasn't in Australian waters but suggested China hadn't broken international law. (Labor campaign)(ABC)(Capital Brief)

6.

Trump crypto bros: The Trump brothers are launching a Bitcoin mining venture with Hut 8 in the First Family’s latest move into the crypto industry. Coined American Bitcoin Corp, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr’s new project will see them partner with the public company to focus on industrial-scale Bitcoin mining and strategic Bitcoin reserve development. In a statement on the partnership, Hut 8 said that it has contributed “substantially all” of its Bitcoin ASICs (computer chips) to the new company in exchange for a majority interest. Hut 8 did not specify whether the Trump family would own the other 20%. “Simply buying Bitcoin is only half the story,” Trump Jr. said in a statement. “Mining it on favorable economics opens an even bigger opportunity.” Hut 8 has a market cap of around USD1.2 billion ($1.9 billion), and shares in the company climbed around 5.8% in pre-market trading on the back of the news. (Fortune)(Bloomberg)(Hut 8)

7.

Foundry fusion: US-based GlobalFoundries and Taiwan’s United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) are exploring a possible merger, Nikkei reported, citing an assessment plan. A combined entity would form a larger US-based firm with a manufacturing footprint across Asia, the US and Europe. The merged company would prioritise US research and development and could potentially emerge as a viable alternative to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, Nikkei said. GlobalFoundries has contacted UMC about a potential deal, and some government officials in the US and Taiwan are aware of the contact, Nikkei reported, citing two people familiar with the matter. The report comes as the US moves to strengthen its semiconductor supply chain amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and increasing Chinese competition in the mature chip market. GlobalFoundries has a market capitalisation of USD20.4 billion and UMC is valued at USD16.9 billion, according to LSEG. Neither firm commented on the report. (Capital Brief)(Nikkei)

8.

Franco fine: France’s antitrust watchdog fined Apple €150 million ($258.1 million) over its App Tracking Transparency feature, saying the “way in which it was implemented was neither necessary nor proportionate” to Apple’s stated aim of protecting personal data, and was “abusive within the meaning of competition law”. The fine—the first by any antitrust regulator over ATT—covers April 2021 to July 2023. The regulator said ATT, introduced in 2021, forced apps to display multiple consent pop-ups, making usage “excessively complex”, and “particularly penalised smaller publishers” reliant on third-party data. Apple said the prompt is “clear, and easy-to-understand” and “consistent for all developers, including Apple”, and that it is “disappointed” with the decision. Asked about possible retaliation from US President Donald Trump, who has threatened tariffs on EU countries penalising American firms, French officials said they apply competition law in an “apolitical manner”. Similar probes are ongoing in Germany, Poland, Italy and Romania. (Capital Brief)(Bloomberg)(AP)