Markets rally on China thaw hopes, Fed cut bets and Milei’s win

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Trade tailwinds: Global markets surged as investors piled into risk assets on hopes of easing US-China trade tensions, expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and a sweeping electoral win for Argentina’s President Javier Milei. The S&P 500 was trading 1.1% higher, the Nasdaq was 1.7% higher and the Dow was up 0.5%. Argentina’s peso rallied about 9% and its bonds and stocks soared after Milei’s party won nearly 41% of the vote, bolstering support for his market reforms. Meanwhile, bond investors pulled back from long-dated US Treasuries despite the anticipated Fed cut, as views shifted towards a soft landing. In IPO news, biotech firm MapLight Therapeutics surged up to 23% after raising USD258.9 million in the first US listing to navigate the recent SEC shutdown backlog. And Reuters reported Amazon is planning to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs, beginning this week, citing unnamed sources. (Bloomberg)(WSJ)(Reuters)(FT)(Capital Brief)

2.

Tearful end: RBA governor Michele Bullock said that the country’s monetary policy board will have to choose between lowering interest rates or holding steady to keep pressure on inflation at its upcoming November meeting. During a fireside discussion on Monday evening, Bullock said that the way the board is thinking about balancing the raised inflation and unemployment data is by taking a “cautious” approach. She added that as the RBA chose not to push rates as high as other nations during the tightening cycle it may not feel the need to drop back down as much as other central banks. Noting that monthly data can be “volatile”, Bullock said that new forecasts due for release this week will help inform the board’s November interest rate decision. Goldman Sachs said it viewed Bullock's comments as continuing its “less dovish lean” and that the outcome of the RBA's November board meeting remains contingent on the 3Q2025 CPI report due Wednesday. (Capital Brief)

3.

Chip game: The launch of new AI chips and racks sparked Qualcomm’s biggest share price surge since 2019, rising as much as 22%. The company is entering the booming AI data centre market with products designed to compete with Nvidia, the dominant supplier of AI accelerators. The new Qualcomm’s AI200 and AI250 chips are built for inference tasks and will be available in 2026 and 2027 respectively, the company said. It added the chips are compatible with common AI frameworks and highlighted their power efficiency and cost advantages. Saudi Arabia’s AI startup Humain, backed by the sovereign wealth fund, will be the first customer and plans to deploy 200 megawatts of systems powered by the Qualcomm hardware from 2026. Qualcomm said it is in talks with major buyers, including hyperscalers, and noted that its components could be used alongside rival processors, including those from Nvidia and AMD. (Capital Brief)(Qualcomm)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)(CNBC)

4.

Copyright clash: Labor will kick off the second phase of a heavily contested battle over Australian copyright law in the coming days, as executives from the world’s largest tech and media companies jostle to influence possible reforms. On Tuesday, Attorney-General Michelle Rowland will bring together more than 70 tech, media and entertainment companies, along with other groups, as part of a Copyright and AI Reference Group aimed at discussing potential reforms. The talks will hear from OpenAI, Microsoft, News Corp and Google, and are expected to walk executives through reforms currently being considered by the Albanese Government. These policy ideas are expected to be included in a consultation paper set to be distributed shortly after the reference group concludes its discussions. The hotly anticipated talks come just two days after Rowland ruled out relaxing copyright laws by including a so-called “text and data mining” exemption. (Capital Brief)

5.

Mach 5 Funding: The National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC) has committed $10 million in equity to Hypersonix Launch Systems (HLS) to support development, testing and manufacturing of its next-generation DART hypersonic aircraft. The funding will help establish advanced manufacturing in Queensland and enable testing of HLS’ vehicles by the US Defence Innovation Unit. It forms part of a $46 million Series A round led by High Tor Capital, with co-investment from QIC, Saab, and RKKVC. Powered by hydrogen and capable of flying at Mach 5–7, DART offers longer, cleaner, high-speed flight. Test flights are set to begin at NASA early next year. HLS also has a partnership with Nasdaq-listed Kratos Defence & Security Solutions. North Ridge Partners advised on the raise. With $15 billion to invest, the NRFC has previously backed companies including Morse Micro and Harrison.ai. CEO David Gall said the investment would strengthen sovereign capability and create high-skilled jobs in regional Queensland. (Capital Brief)

6.

Shareholder rebellion: Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund will vote against the remuneration report of ASX-listed building materials company, James Hardie, and most of its board directors, at this week's AGM. Norwegian central bank, Norges Bank, which manages the Government Pension Fund of Norway, said it would oppose the re-election of chair Anne Lloyd and all but one company director up for election this week, joining a flock of irate proxy advisers and institutional investors. "Shareholders should have the right to seek changes to the board when it does not act in their best interest," Norges said. Norges owned 1.35% of James Hardie before the merger. James Hardie had announced a heavily criticised plan to merge with US decking firm Azek, a move that wiped $6 billion from its market cap and would see it move its primary listing from the ASX to the US – with the Australian exchange waiving the company's obligation to seek shareholder approval. (Capital Brief)

7.

Telcos on notice: Telecommunications companies will be required to maintain a public register of network outages in the wake of Optus’ triple zero outage in September. Minister for Communications Anika Wells told ACMA that she will direct the media regulator to amend current rules to mandate that telecoms providers maintain a public register of network outages. The public registers will “increase transparency and accountability around outages and related impacts on access to Triple Zero” and will apply to all kinds of network outages. Telcos are already required to inform their customers of outages in real time. Liberal Senator Sarah Henderson will move a motion to establish a Senate inquiry into Optus’ triple zero outage on 18 September. The motion is expected to pass. Henderson accused ACMA’s investigation (launched late September) of being “woefully inadequate and riddled with conflicts of interest”. (Capital Brief)

8.

Fed finalists: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the five finalists to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with President Donald Trump saying he expects to make a decision by the end of the year. Bessent told reporters Monday on Air Force One that the list includes Fed board members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Bessent said he plans to do another round of interviews and hopes to present a “good slate” to Trump after Thanksgiving. Powell’s term as chair ends in May, but his term as governor continues into early 2028. It comes as the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, following a similar move in September, as officials weigh concerns over slowing hiring and inflation that remains above the Fed’s target. (Bloomberg)