Politics can be a cruel business. But, fundamentally, it's a numbers game.
That’s why today’s Capital Brief/DemosAU poll, which shows voters prefer One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson to Opposition Leader Sussan Ley as a potential prime minister, virtually seals Ley’s fate.
Over the past month, successive polls have shown One Nation overtaking the Coalition on primary vote.
But the prospect of 26% of Australians naming Hanson as preferred prime minister, compared with 16% for Ley, will horrify Liberal MPs contemplating a spill after last week’s chaos in parliament.
At a deeper level, the polling consolidates immigration as the nation’s key political battleground in the months and years ahead.
