Oil price plunge deepens on Israel-Iran cooldown

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Oil crunch: Oil prices plunged after Israel’s targeted strikes in Iran avoided oil and nuclear infrastructure, easing immediate concerns over supply disruption. Brent crude fell 5.67% to USD71.34 per barrel, while WTI dropped below USD67 per barrel. Israel’s weekend attack on Iranian military sites avoided the feared escalation, with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei signalling a possible restrained response. Citi analysts shifted focus to potential oversupply risks in 2025, lowering their Brent price target for the next three months to USD70 a barrel, while OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, adding supply pressure. (Bloomberg)(Capital Brief)(Reuters)(FT)

2.

Musk’s scheme: Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk and his political action committee, alleging their USD1 million ($1.52 million) daily giveaways enticing swing-state voters to share their personal data are illegal. The civil suit claims the lottery scheme, awarding cash to voters who sign a petition supporting free speech and gun rights, violates Pennsylvania’s consumer protection and lottery laws, especially targeting vulnerable residents, media reported citing the lawsuit documents. The Justice Department had last week warned Musk’s America PAC, which supports Donald Trump, the cash giveaways luring voters to give their personal information could breach federal law. Krasner is asking the court for an order to prohibit the scheme. On Monday Musk’s X account stated, after the lawsuit was filed, that the giveaway would continue until election day. (Capital Brief)(Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office)(The Wall Street Journal)(USA Today)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)(WSJ)

3.

VW restructure: Volkswagen plans to close at least three factories, lay off tens of thousands of workers and impose a 10% pay cut across its German workforce, as the company grapples with intensifying competition from China, high operational costs and a sluggish transition to electric vehicles. The company’s powerful employee council, led by Daniela Cavallo, revealed the details of the restructuring plan on Monday at a workers’ assembly, sparking union resistance, financial media reported. The council and IG Metall union hinted at future strikes if the weeks-long negotiations that are set to resume Wednesday don’t result in revisions to the proposals. “We will break off the talks and do what a workforce has to do when it fears for its existence,” Cavallo said. The domestic plant closures would be the first in the company’s 87-year history. (Reuters)(The Associated Press)(FT)(Bloomberg)(Capital Brief)

4.

Funding lift: Aerospace manufacturer Boeing launched a USD19 billion ($28.84 billion) equity and convertible securities offering to strengthen its balance sheet and avoid a potential credit downgrade. The move follows a USD10 billion credit facility and is aimed at offsetting cash flow losses exacerbated by an ongoing seven-week union strike affecting production of its planes, including Boeing’s 737 Max. The sale includes 90 million common shares valued at nearly USD14 billion and USD5 billion in mandatory convertible preferred stock. If oversubscribed, Boeing could raise up to USD22 billion ($33.39 billion). The offering is intended for "general corporate purposes," with PJT Partners as the adviser and major banks as underwriters. Boeing's stock, which has lost 40% this year, was trading 1.8% lower on Monday afternoon US time (Tuesday AEDT). (Capital Brief)

5.

Trump bets: Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group soared 17% to their highest since June, driven by speculation around Donald Trump's potential victory in the upcoming US presidential election. Since hitting a record low on September 23, the stock has quadrupled in value, now pricing the company at USD9 billion ($13.67 billion). That is even when Trump Media’s revenue for the June quarter was only USD837,000, as betting platforms like Polymarket and PredictIt have Trump’s winning odds at roughly 62-66%, reflecting market sentiment that aligns the company’s worth with Trump’s election chances. Meanwhile, Robinhood introduced US presidential election event contracts for retail traders to speculate on the election outcome. (Reuters)(USA Today)(CNN)

6.

Meta search: Facebook’s parent Meta Platforms is developing an AI-powered search engine to reduce its reliance on Google and Microsoft’s Bing for providing news, sports and stock data to users of its chatbot, Meta AI, The Information reported. According to the publication, the new engine will crawl the web and offer conversational answers across WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook, with Reuters recently signing a licencing deal to deliver real-time news responses. (Reuters)(The Information)

7.

Solar switch: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will today announce Australia’s first commercial Concentrated Solar Thermal (CST) heat plant to be located in Wodonga. Labor is framing the push for renewables as a jobs boon, as it seeks to strike a contrast with the Coalition’s “risky” nuclear strategy. Construction will begin this month, and the $17 million project is expected to be in operation by 2026. CST uses mirrors to concentrate sunlight, producing thermal energy which is stored and used during the manufacturing process. While it has been used to generate electricity for a long time, its use in renewable heat for industry is relatively novel. The government estimates the new plant will halve the facility’s gas use and create roughly 80 jobs in construction. (Capital Brief)

8.

Apple releases: Apple on Monday rolled out its first AI tools as part of the Apple Intelligence suite, including new text-editing features, a redesigned Siri interface and a message-recapping tool. The company also released its M4-powered iMac with enhanced AI processing capabilities, days ahead of its Q4 earnings release on Thursday. Analysts are expecting revenue of about USD94.58 billion, according to Visible Alpha. Goldman Sachs predicts a beat on strong iPhone demand, particularly for the iPhone 16, whose sales reportedly surged by 20% in China. Meanwhile, Reuters reported Indonesia has blocked iPhone 16 sales over unmet local content requirements, pushing Apple toward potential local partnerships. (Reuters)(Bloomberg)(Investopedia)(Benzinga)