OPEC+ pumps harder as Hormuz reopens

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

1.

Crude deal: OPEC+ agreed to raise oil output targets again from August as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and Gulf producers restore production, the group said Sunday. Seven core members will increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, marking a fifth straight monthly increase as the group unwinds production cuts introduced in recent years. The countries include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. Previous increases remained largely on paper because the US-Israeli war on Iran closed the strait to tanker traffic for major producers. Shipping along a US-protected corridor showed signs of recovering on Sunday, Bloomberg reported, a day after a batch of vessels performed unexplained U-turns, though Western navies say the threat risk is “substantial” and that the centre of the strait has been mined. OPEC+ output fell to 33.13 million barrels per day in May from 42.77 million in February, and began to recover in June, though it remains below pre-war levels. Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels. Brent crude traded near USD72 a barrel on Friday, down from peaks above USD120. (OPEC)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)

2.

Claude computing: Anthropic is tendering to buy at least 1.4 gigawatts of Australian data centre capacity costing up to USD15 billion ($21.6 billion) to build, according to confidential documents obtained by The Australian Financial Review. The tender lands as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told the NSW Labor Conference the world was queuing up to invest in Australia and that if the country acts now it can set the ground rules for AI. Anthropic wants at least 1GW in use by the end of next year, according to the report. Its base case is a single long-term partner building a 1.4GW-plus campus, and it is willing to share development risk. The request for proposal landed with CDC Data Centres, AirTrunk, NextDC, Iren and Stack, with shortlisted parties meeting in Canberra in early April, the report said. As of Sunday, Anthropic was reported to be at least six weeks from a decision and could split the deal into four or five contracts, with Infratil-owned CDC expected to take about 500MW, sources told the paper. Bidders were asked how they would raise USD12 billion to USD15 billion in debt and equity, given credit agencies rate Anthropic non investment-grade. (AFR)(Capital Brief)

3.

Chip shape: Nvidia supplier Foxconn posted a bigger-than-expected jump of about 40% in second-quarter revenue driven by strong AI demand, and pointed to a positive outlook subject to geopolitics. The Taiwanese company, formally Hon Hai Precision Industry and the world’s largest contract electronics maker, said revenue rose to NTD2.51 trillion ($114 billion) in the April to June quarter, beating an LSEG estimate of NTD2.372 trillion. Nvidia’s biggest server maker and Apple’s top iPhone assembler said AI demand drove robust growth in its cloud and networking products division, while smart consumer electronics posted significant growth. June revenue alone rose 52.1% year-on-year to NTD821.8 billion, a record for that month. Foxconn said AI rack shipments are expected to maintain growth in the third quarter and operations will gradually gain momentum as information and communications technology products enter peak season, with both quarterly and yearly growth expected. But the company also said the outlook remained subject to monitoring the impact of the volatile global political and economic situation, without elaborating. (Foxconn)(Reuters)

4.

Pacific overtures: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to sign a major new security pact with Fiji today, the first move in a three-day diplomatic blitz aimed at boosting regional ties and countering China’s influence in the Pacific. Albanese arrived in Suva on Sunday evening to a ceremonial welcome and will sign the Vuvale Union with Fijian prime minister Sitiveni Rabuka, according to media reports. The Canberra Times reported the agreement could upgrade ties to a level close to Australia’s mutual defence pact with Papua New Guinea. Albanese will then travel to the Solomon Islands on Tuesday to advance a new treaty with recently elected prime minister Matthew Wale, who last month vowed to review the country’s security agreement with China and promised a reset with Australia, the SMH reported. The talks continue on Wednesday when the leaders of PNG and Tonga visit Brisbane for the State of Origin decider. The Fiji deal adds to pacts struck with Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Nauru and Papua New Guinea since 2022. Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will visit later in the week. (SMH)(Canberra Times)

5.

Toll order: IFM Investors secured more than 60% ownership of Atlas Arteria as its $7.4 billion hostile takeover bid nears completion, The Australian Financial Review reported without saying where it got the information. The paper said IFM is expected to tell the market today that investors holding well above 60% of the toll road group’s stock have accepted its offer of $5.10 a share in cash. Atlas Arteria’s board last week continued to urge shareholders to reject the proposal, which closes Tuesday evening. IFM has been unhappy with Atlas Arteria’s 2022 purchase of a two-thirds stake in Chicago’s Skyway toll road for $2.9 billion, and the poison pill agreed with the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. That arrangement lets Ontario, which owns the remaining third, sell its holding to Atlas at a 7.5% premium to fair market value. To remove it, Atlas agreed to pay Ontario USD100 million ($144 million) to scrap the poison pill, half of which has been paid. According to Atlas’s most recent target statement, IFM also wanted the company to renegotiate the settlement and create a call option to buy Ontario’s Skyway stake for USD1 billion. IFM intends to conduct a full strategic review. (AFR)

6.

Firm ground: Firmus is digging in against a soaring community backlash over its plans to build AI data centres in Tasmania and South Australia. Having spent much of the year courting the world’s largest investors ahead of a blockbuster IPO and deepening its relationship with Nvidia, co-founders and co-CEOs Oliver Curtis and Tim Rosenfield now find themselves on the ground fighting their corner in the rural towns of Brinkworth, South Australia and George Town, Tasmania. The Tasmanian Greens have sponsored a petition calling for a state moratorium on data centres until “essential guardrails” are established, and Greens MP Tabatha Badger said it has drawn more than 6,000 signatures in a week. Firmus, which confirmed last month it would add sites in George Town and Wesley Vale, has been mounting a defence. In an ABC Hobart interview, Curtis said the closest residents to its George Town facility would detect noise of “between 20 and 30 decibels”, less than library noise, while its St Leonards site used less water than a single restaurant in a year. Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young also wants a nationwide moratorium. (Capital Brief)

7.

Cart intelligence: Most young Australians are using AI-powered tools when shopping online, according to new research from IAB Australia and Pureprofile. Six in 10 online shoppers use AI-powered tools, and 75% of those aged 18 to 39 said they use the technology when making purchases, either for research or product selection. The frequency at which Australians shop online has hit a record high, with 35% saying they do so weekly compared with 29% in 2025. Most shoppers (78%) use AI summaries before clicking through to complete a purchase, and most use multiple AI sources. But 80% have concerns around accuracy, privacy and trust in recommendations. Half use the tools to compare prices and 45% to answer product questions or compare products and brands. Economic pressures and the rising cost of living have affected habits, with 71% making different purchasing choices due to higher costs. “The path to purchase is becoming far more fragmented,” Pureprofile CEO Martin Filz said. (Capital Brief)

8.

Fowl play: New South Wales became Australia’s third state to confirm a case of H5N1 bird flu after a migratory seabird found on a beach north of Newcastle tested positive for the highly pathogenic virus. Agriculture minister Tara Moriarty confirmed on Saturday that a giant petrel found on Bennetts Beach at Hawks Nest returned a positive result, the sixth confirmed case in the country in the past fortnight, according to media reports. Authorities have since sent a dead cormorant found on Narrabeen Beach in Sydney for testing at the Elizabeth McArthur Institute in Menangle, the SMH reported. Moriarty said there was no evidence of spread to local wildlife and that H5 had not been detected in commercial poultry. “There is no need to panic,” she said. “People should continue buying chicken, continue buying eggs in the usual way.” NSW chief veterinary officer Jo Coombe said that if the disease got into the wildlife population, it had never been possible to contain it anywhere else in the world. (SMH)(Reuters)(news.com.au)