Pakistan urges Trump to hold fire and Iran to open Hormuz for a fortnight

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Tick Tock: Pakistan made a last-ditch plea for a two-week extension of Donald Trump’s 8pm ET (10am AEST) deadline to bomb Iran’s civilian infrastructure, as the US struck Iran’s main oil hub and Tehran reportedly halted peace talks on the most critical day yet of the six-week war. Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X that diplomatic efforts were “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully” and asked Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. He also called on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same period “as a goodwill gesture” and urged all parties to observe a two-week ceasefire. The White House said Trump was aware of the request and “a response will come,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. Earlier, the US launched dozens of strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub, which the NYT reported a US military official characterised as “restrikes” on previously targeted sites that did not hit energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Israel reportedly struck eight bridges and railways across Iran, with three people killed when a railway bridge was hit in Kashan, Iranian state media reported. Pakistan’s request came hours after Trump warned on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again” if Tehran failed to reach a deal. (NYT)(AP)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)(WSJ)

2.

On tenterhooks: US stocks fell sharply then pared most of their losses after Pakistan requested a two-week extension of the US president’s 10am ultimatum to Iran, which had warned that "a whole civilization will die tonight” if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Dated Brent, the benchmark that helps set the price of most of the world’s oil transactions, hit USD144.42 a barrel, its highest since records began in 1987, as traders scrambled to secure immediate supply, the FT reported citing S&P Global data. Physical crude prices in some markets approached USD150, driven by what veteran oil trader Adi Imsirovic told Reuters was “panic” over supplies. WTI crude settled around USD113 a barrel. The S&P 500 closed 0.08% higher, Nasdaq was up 0.10% while the Dow closed 0.18% lower. “Markets are paralysed with no one wanting to take more risk into this binary event tonight,” Jordan Rochester, a fixed-income strategist at Mizuho, was quoted as saying by the FT. (WSJ)(FT)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)

3.

War crimes: The Sword of Damocles hanging over Ben Roberts-Smith for a decade fell in spectacular fashion yesterday, with news he had been arrested and charged with five counts of the war crime of murder. Once Australia’s most decorated living soldier, Roberts-Smith faces a bail hearing on Wednesday with charges of murdering unarmed Afghan civilians and prisoners hanging over him. The irony is that the defamation proceedings Roberts-Smith launched against Nine Entertainment in 2018 to clear his name over claims he was involved in the deaths of unarmed civilians in Afghanistan could end up making the difference between a guilty and not guilty verdict. Senior silk Mark Weinberg KC previously told Capital Brief’s Michael Pelly, “without question, they will be able to use what has happened in this trial.” But a trial is a long way off, if it proceeds at all. Pelly writes it could be at least two years away. It must be heard by a jury, a constitutional requirement for Commonwealth offences, though finding impartial jurors after years of defamation publicity will be no small feat. Further, evidence will have to meet the far higher criminal standard of beyond reasonable doubt. The Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions director Raelene Sharp KC retains final say over whether the case proceeds, the AFR noted. (Capital Brief)(AFR)

4.

Dead start? Bill Ackman launched an about EUR56 billion ($93.36 billion) offer to buy Universal Music Group, the world’s largest record label, betting a New York listing and a restructure can unlock billions in value for a stock that has shed more than 30% in six months. Pershing Square Capital Management, which holds over 4.5% of UMG, said shareholders would receive EUR5.05 per share in cash, totalling EUR9.4 billion, plus 0.77 shares in a new combined entity for every UMG share held. That implies a value of €30.40 per share, or a 78% premium to last Thursday’s closing price. The deal would merge UMG with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings. Two-thirds shareholder approval is required to secure a deal, and Ackman himself acknowledged in a call with investors that “without Bolloré we don’t have a transaction.” The Bolloré Group is Universal’s largest shareholder, with more than 18% of UMG through its family holding company. French media group Vivendi, in which Bolloré is also the largest shareholder, holds a further 10%. Ackman said the group was “intrigued” but that “the devil is in the details.” UMG shares rose over 11% to €19.06, still below the proposed valuation. Analyst Nicolas Marmurek of M&A specialist Square Global told Bloomberg that without French billionaire Vincent Bolloré’s support the proposal looks “very much dead from the start”. (Capital Brief)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)(FT)(NYT)

5.

Small business squeeze: Research from conservative think tank the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), shared exclusively with Capital Brief, shows a net decline in the number of small businesses in the Australian economy over the last three years. The IPA found that the number of small businesses employing between one and 19 people fell by 33,426 to 920,999 in the post-Covid period between June 2022 and June 2025. IPA research fellow Cian Hussey told Capital Brief that increasing the concentration of the economy in large corporations and multinationals has “undermined innovation and competition”, contributing to sluggish productivity and putting wage growth at risk. He said the decline in small businesses diminishes the “entrepreneurial side” of Australian culture, which could create a feedback loop of a further decline in the small business count. Ultimately, Hussey is calling on the government to “seriously consider” structural reform in the approach to regulating small businesses by increasing the amount of exemptions. (Capital Brief)

6.

Tech update: Intel has joined Elon Musk’s Terafab chip project alongside SpaceX and Tesla, targeting 1 terawatt of computing capacity annually in a venture Musk envisions rivalling Taiwan Semiconductor. DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria told Reuters it was an “important step” in the chipmaker’s restructuring, which has included job cuts, asset sales and investments from Nvidia and the US government. Elsewhere, there were two notable executive AI industry moves. Anthropic hired Microsoft’s Eric Boyd, who oversaw Microsoft’s AI platform, as its new head of infrastructure. And the FT reported Jeff Bezos’s secretive Project Prometheus poached xAI co-founder Kyle Kosic from OpenAI to work on AI infrastructure. Separately, Anthropic launched its cybersecurity model Claude Mythos Preview to a select group of vetted customers including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and CrowdStrike, days after human error exposed internal company data publicly. It also comes a day after the AI leader said its revenue run rate had surpassed USD30 billion, up from USD9 billion at the end of 2025. Bloomberg also reported Apple’s first foldable iPhone remains on track for a September launch above USD2,000, citing unnamed sources, refuting a Nikkei Asia report that manufacturing challenges threatened to delay the release. And Samsung shares rose yesterday after it projected a record first-quarter operating profit of 57.2 trillion won (an eightfold jump on a year earlier) driven by AI-fuelled memory chip demand. (Intel)(FT)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)

7.

SaaSpocalypse Catapult: Wearable device maker for elite athletes Catapult Sports is probably not the first company that springs to mind when discussing the impact of the SaaSpocalypse on the ASX. But the once high-flying company has been seriously swept up in the AI-led downturn still dominating markets. Over the past six months, its shares (down 58%) have been hit harder than software pure-plays like Xero (-52%) and even embattled logistics software provider WiseTech (-55%), not to mention US-listed Atlassian (-54%). The stock has fallen out of the ASX 200 index and last week its market value slipped below $1 billion, after an analyst briefing it delivered sparked concerns over the way it accounts for share-based payment costs tied to previous acquisitions. “I’m a little bit surprised by the reaction” CEO Will Lopes told Capital Brief last week, and he is “expecting that the market will return that reaction in due course”. (Capital Brief)

8.

Release the muselet: Activist shareholder and one-time CEO-in-waiting Robert Foye will ratchet up his campaign to restore Treasury Wine Estates to its former glory, as he looks to meet with frustrated investors and convince a reluctant management team on his turnaround strategy. Speaking from Houston, the wine industry veteran told Capital Brief he was talking to top investors and analysts about how to urgently turn around the company’s performance as he looks to emulate the company’s growth trajectory between 2014 and 2018 under his stewardship. “If investors feel the stock price and the valuation is not going in the direction they want, and they want to have some more help, then I’ll provide that,” Foye said, adding that he was “absolutely” sticking around. “I’m going to keep the pressure on.” Foye said he’d been in “very cordial” discussions with Treasury chair John Mullen for nine months but decided to ratchet up the crusade and go public as the share price more than halved. (Capital Brief)