For years it’s been political gospel that the Coalition needs a primary vote north of 40% to win federal elections — unlike Labor, which pulled off a majority in 2022 on less than 33% of first preferences.
So when Newspoll put the Coalition at 40% in November, expectations were raised about a Peter Dutton upset win. And with this week’s Newspoll again confirming the Coalition’s primary vote has crashed down to 35%, and putting Labor at 34% — a better result for Anthony Albanese than the the 2022 election result — expectation is building that Labor can retain its majority.
But in the dying days of what Dutton is now conceding has been a disjointed and poorly executed campaign, many Liberals are still briefing that their internal polling paints a more hopeful picture than the public polls.
This is essentially centered on the notion that preferences from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and other right-of-centre minor parties are surging towards the Coalition at a higher rate than the last election in key mortgage-belt seats in the outer suburbs and regions.
