The Trump show
With Donald Trump well ahead in the polls despite a multitude of legal challenges, it's time to start preparing for the possibility of a second term in the White House.
Last December, I was invited to moderate a panel featuring two of Australia's top investors: Phil King of Regal Funds Management and Geoff Wilson of Wilson Asset Management, alongside Bahamas-based hedge fund heavyweight Mark Holowesko for an event hosted by Future Generation, Wilson’s philanthropic vehicle.
Only a couple of weeks earlier, the US midterm elections had taken place. The Republicans had underperformed, failing to secure control of both houses of Congress as had been anticipated. The soft result was widely attributed to the influence of former president Donald Trump, who had spent much of the campaign re-litigating the 2020 election result, which he lost but falsely claimed was due to widespread voter fraud.
I asked the panellists whether they thought a Trump return to the White House was still possible in 2024, and what that might mean for markets. Each of them summarily dismissed it out of hand.
It might have been a case of these fund managers — who are not political experts but manage billions — not wanting to be quoted publicly on a highly divisive issue. And back then it really did seem like Trump was becoming a spent political force. But less than a year on, the prediction looks increasingly inaccurate. Trump is the clear favourite for the Republican nomination in next year’s election. At the moment he is also the favourite in betting markets to reclaim the presidency.
