Trump claims Iran agreed to suspend nuclear program as Strait of Hormuz reopens

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know this weekend.

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1.

Right of passage: US President Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and that it will not receive any frozen funds from the US, telling Bloomberg that a deal to end the war is mostly complete and that talks over a lasting agreement will “probably” be held this weekend in Pakistan. A Trump administration official told the WSJ the talks will likely take place on Monday. Trump told Reuters the US plans to enter Iran at a “leisurely pace” to recover its enriched uranium and relocate it to the States. Trump told CBS that removing enriched uranium from Iran would not involve US ground troops. Iran has yet to comment on a peace deal, including on the issue of its nuclear program. The comments came after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that the country had agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would decide which vessels are allowed to cross the Strait. Responding to Araghchi’s announcement that the Strait would be opened “for the remaining period of ceasefire” between Lebanon and Israel, Trump said the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in effect, “as it pertains to Iran, until an agreement between Washington and Tehran is ‘100% COMPLETE’.” Trump added that Tehran “has removed, or is removing” all mines from the Strait “with the help of the U.S.A.” A Malta-flagged cruise ship became the first passenger vessel to move through the Strait on Friday, while at least eight oil tankers raced toward the passage in hopes of passing through following the re-opening. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese joined more than 40 world leaders in a virtual meeting on Friday, which did not include Trump, to discuss reopening the Hormuz Strait. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(CBS)(WSJ)

2.

Strong finish: US stocks surged on Friday after Iran confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” for the remainder of the ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon. The Dow Jones rose by 869 points, or 1.8%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.2% to cross 7,100 for the first time. The Nasdaq gained 1.5%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched intraday highs. The renewed hope for a resolution in the Middle East saw US stocks close out their third consecutive week of gains. Meanwhile, oil prices plunged on the news as fears about deepening supply disruption eased. Brent crude futures declined 9% to settle at USD90.38 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures plummeted almost 12%, settling at USD83.85 per barrel. Investors placed a massive USD760 million bet on falling oil prices around 20 minutes before Iran’s Foreign Minister announced the Hormuz Strait was open, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data. (CNBC)(FT)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)

3.

Canva 2.0: For four years, Canva Create has been a showcase for the company’s latest products, and has even had its infamous moments — among them a rap battle at its 2024 event that TechCrunch declared part of Silicon Valley’s long legacy of cringe. Across the SaaS industry, AI has collapsed product roadmaps, rendered moats negotiable and forced a reckoning with what software companies are actually for. “Every time there is a technology disruption at the foundational layer, it means the table is flipped, and all the food on the table is up for grabs,” Obrecht told Capital Brief ahead of its LA event held on Thursday, US time. “As a platform with a lot of customers, you’ve got the right to retain them only if you’re the best product in the market. It’s ours to lose.” It was with that in mind that Canva unveiled its most significant product overhaul since launching in 2013, introducing Canva AI 2.0. “We’ve gone from a design tool with AI, to a design platform with AI, to an AI platform with design tools,” Obrecht told Capital Brief. (Capital Brief)

4.

Thawing relations: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is due to meet with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles on Friday, marking a breakthrough in his efforts to resolve a bitter feud with the Pentagon over the company’s AI models. The meeting, first reported by Axios, is due to take place later on Friday Washington time (Saturday morning AEST), as the cybersecurity risks of Anthropic’s powerful new AI model Mythos triggered deep concern from governments, regulators and corporates across the globe. “It would be grossly irresponsible for the US government to deprive itself of the technological leaps that the new model presents,” a source close to negotiations told Axios. “It would be a gift to China.” Anthropic is currently suing the Pentagon for blacklisting the company after Amodei rejected the Department’s requests to use Anthropic’s AI without restrictions. Meanwhile, the Financial Stability Board is compiling information about Mythos’ potential risks to share with regulators and central bankers. (Axios)(CNBC)(WSJ)(WaPo)

5.

DeepSeek(ing) DeepPockets: Chinese AI lab DeepSeek is in talks to raise at least USD300 million ($417.8 million), at a valuation of at least USD10 billion, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by The Information. The company, which last year rattled tech markets with the release of its low-cost models, has previously turned down multiple funding offers from China’s top venture capital firms and tech giants. The startup recently began speaking to investors as it needs more capital to invest in computing resources to compete in the crowded field and rectify the recent departures of several star researchers. Sources told the masthead that US venture capitalists may avoid investing in the Chinese startup, with DeepSeek having previously been accused of aiding Beijing’s military efforts by US Congress. DeepSeek’s plans to release its next flagship AI model in February were postponed several times due to engineering and other difficulties. (The Information)

6.

Sentence slashed: Myanmar released former president Win Myint from jail and reduced the prison sentence of the country’s ex-leader Aung San Suu Kyi by four years, as part of a mass amnesty of 4,335 prisoners. The pardon ordered by President Min Aung Hlaing is one of his first official acts since becoming leader earlier this month. The 80-year-old Suu Kyi is serving a 27-year sentence for a range of politically related offences including incitement, corruption and election fraud. Myint was chosen by Suu Kyi for the largely ceremonial role of Myanmar’s president after the military barred her from serving as president. Myint served in the role from 2018 until the 2021 military coup which plunged the country into civil war. It is not clear whether the Nobel Peace Prize winner will be allowed to serve the rest of her sentence under house arrest or when she may be eligible for release. Suu Kyi’s 2019 defence of Myanmar’s military actions against allegations of ethnic cleansing towards Rohingya people severely damaged her reputation. (NYT)(ABC)(Al Jazeera)

7.

(Private) credit default swaps: JPMorgan Chase, Barclays and other Wall Street banks have begun trading derivatives products that would benefit should private credit funds default on their debt, according to sources cited by the Financial Times. The lenders started trading credit default swaps (CDS) against private credit funds run by Blackstone, Apollo Global and Ares Management in recent days, sources told the masthead, with the CDS paying out should the vehicles default on their debt. The private credit industry has been bombarded with a wave of redemption requests from investors, with several funds curbing redemptions amid the exodus. The new CDS contracts began trading after S&P Global launched its CDX Financials index earlier this week. Banks then began to actively trade CDS on the underlying funds, as the contracts give traders the ability to bet on whether the individual vehicles will default on their borrowings. Some are also wagering on the difference in pricing between the fund’s bonds and CDS spreads. (FT)

8.

Retrospective rules: A controversial proposal to backdate the capital gains tax regime for foreign investors would be enforced by the Australian Taxation Office over the past four years, despite concerns retrospectivity would reduce Australia’s investment attractiveness. In draft legislation released by Treasury on 10 April, the government proposed to expand the scope of assets considered ‘real property’, which would subject foreign investors to capital gains tax when they sell them, and backdate it to December 2006. In a note released overnight Thursday, the ATO said “in practice, we would continue our current compliance approach for disposals that are currently subject to review [or] have occurred in the past four years”. “Therefore, we don’t expect the retrospective changes to the law, if they’re enacted, to affect many taxpayers,” the ATO note read. A spokesman for Treasurer Jim Chalmers told the AFR: “this is not about going back and reopening old transactions.” (ATO)(Capital Brief)(AFR)