Trump says highly unlikely to extend US-Iran ceasefire

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

1.

Strait anxiety: Oil surged more than 6% and Wall Street retreated from record highs after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend and Donald Trump warned the ceasefire expires “Wednesday evening Washington time” and that it was “highly unlikely” he would extend it if no deal was reached before then. The S&P 500 lost 0.24%, the Nasdaq fell 0.26% and the Dow was largely unchanged to the downside, each coming off a third straight week of gains. Brent crude rose 5.4% to USD95.25 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate jumped 6.23% to USD89.07, lifting energy stocks as the best-performing S&P 500 sector on the day. A US delegation was heading to Pakistan for talks, though a senior Iranian official told Reuters Tehran was still considering whether to attend, and a separate source added JD Vance was still in the US and had not departed for Islamabad. Separately, discount carrier Spirit Aviation floated offering the US government an equity stake to stave off potential liquidation, as soaring jet fuel prices threaten the airline’s survival, Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, psychedelic drug stocks surged after Trump signed an executive order to expedite research and patient access over the weekend, with Compass Pathways climbing more than 43%. Elsewhere, Apple announced John Ternus will replace Tim Cook as CEO, who will become executive chairman from September. (Bloomberg)(FT)(Reuters)(AP)(WSJ)

2.

Firm appetite: Any doubts about the size of local investor interest in Oliver Curtis’ ‘AI factory’ builder Firmus were put to bed on Monday morning as hundreds of fund managers filled out an auditorium at the Sofitel Hotel in Sydney. After meeting with investors in North America, Europe and Asia over the last fortnight, the company’s Singapore-based co-founder and co-CEO has finally taken the multi-billion-dollar IPO pitch to his hometown. “It had like 150 people there, which tells you the level of interest in the business from the institutional investment community,” Wilson Asset Management (WAM) portfolio manager Shaun Weick told Capital Brief. “I’ve never seen that in my life, if I’m honest. It was a full auditorium.” Some investors have been sceptical about the pitch, citing a “bare-bones presentation” light on financial specifics. But Weick believes the lack of hard numbers is “very normal” at this stage of the process. Earlier on Monday, NextDC’s CEO Craig Scroggie questioned whether Firmus can build “fit for purpose” facilities at its claimed cost projections and compared the company’s proposed data centres to a Bunnings Warehouse store. (Capital Brief)

3.

Flip switch: Small business, not big tech, will determine whether AI delivers on Australia’s productivity challenge, NAB’s group executive for digital, data and AI Pete Steel wrote for Capital Brief. SMEs make up 98% of all Australian businesses and account for around 53% of economic activity, and without a lift in their productivity, as NAB boss Andrew Irvine has warned, how Australians live now is “frankly, as good as it gets,” wrote Steel. He argues AI offers the most scalable fix, but only if adoption spreads well beyond its current beachhead. NAB Economics research shows 56% of SMEs are already using AI or plan to, but uptake in retail, transport and manufacturing ranges from just 21% to 35%, well behind property, finance and business services, which all sit above 60%. The biggest barrier, Steel argues, is not access to technology but confidence. A Sunshine Coast manufacturer is already using AI to compare insurance quotes, stress-test decisions and prepare proposals, saving minutes on each task but hours each week. “Our job now,” Steel writes, “is to make sure more businesses feel confident enough to safely flip the switch.” (Capital Brief)

4.

Red flags: Shares in Fermi, the Texas-based data centre company co-founded by Donald Trump’s former energy secretary Rick Perry that is building a campus provisionally named after the US president, plunged over 23% after its CEO co-founder and CFO both resigned abruptly. The weekend’s resignation of the firm’s boss and co-founder Toby Neugebauer and numbers man Miles Everson leaves the company without permanent leadership as it searches for an anchor tenant for its flagship Texas data centre campus. Fermi did not provide a reason for the departures, but said the shake-up had been at least three months in the making and would have no effect on its ability to sign tenants or meet delivery targets. Meanwhile, short seller Fuzzy Panda Research disclosed a short position, alleging fraudulent transfers and misappropriation of assets by Neugebauer and other executives. Fermi recently lost a USD150 million Amazon investment, though a 20-year lease letter of intent remains in place, according to the FT. Fermi reported a USD486 million net loss in fiscal year 2025 and disclosed “material weakness” in its financial reporting in March. The company listed last October at USD21 per share, with its shares closing at USD5.40 overnight in New York. (SEC filing)(Fuzzy Panda Research)(FT)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)

5.

Warsh words: Donald Trump’s pick to lead the US Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will tell the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday that monetary policy independence is “essential” and that “inflation is a choice” for which the Fed must take responsibility, according to financial media outlets citing his prepared remarks. According to the reports, he will stop short of pushing back on Trump’s calls for lower rates or mentioning the DOJ probe into current chair Jerome Powell. Warsh will argue that Fed independence is “earned” by “steering clear of distractions” and that the central bank must “stay in its lane” on fiscal and social policies. He will also concede that the same degree of independence does not apply to bank regulation, international finance and stewardship of public funds, areas where he will pledge to work with the Trump administration and Congress. Meanwhile, in an updated financial disclosure, Warsh also pledged to divest from a Canadian equity fund, iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index, if confirmed. He and his wife hold disclosed assets totalling at least USD192 million, by Bloomberg’s count. (Bloomberg)(Reuters) (Politico)

6.

Data deal: AirTrunk acquired India-based data centre developer Lumina CloudInfra, adding an additional 600 megawatts of planned capacity and future development potential of up to USD5 billion ($6.99 billion). The Lumina CloudInfra platform will still continue to be supported by capital investments from Blackstone and CPPIB. It is advancing three data centre projects in Mumbai, Chennai and Hyderabad. Following the acquisition, AirTrunk will have more than 3GW of operating and planned capacity across 20 data centre campuses in Australia, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, Hong Kong and India. “India is one of the largest and fastest growing markets for hyperscale and AI infrastructure worldwide, and expanding in this market is a significant milestone for AirTrunk’s broader APAC strategy,” AirTrunk CEO and founder Robin Khuda said. (Capital Brief)(AirTrunk)

7.

SaaSpocalypse Protecht(ed): Sydney-based risk management software firm Protecht acquired AI-powered risk assessment tool VISO Trust to help bulk up its product offering under the competitive threat of powerful AI agents and cheap alternatives spun up using AI coding tools. Software companies listed on public markets have been indiscriminately sold off en masse over the last six months amid fears they will be replaced by AI tools, a phenomenon which has been dubbed the SaaSpocalypse. But since Protecht was backed by a USD280 million ($390.8 million) investment from growth equity firm PSG Equity in March 2025, the company has deepened its focus on AI integration across its existing product roadmap to ensure the platform remains competitive with AI tools. On the AI threat to more traditional software businesses, CEO Jason Phillips said “if you have a product that’s easily replaced through vibe coding and a little bit of AI, yes, I think you have a big problem”. (Capital Brief)

8.

Xi’s POV: China’s President Xi Jinping demanded an immediate ceasefire and the restoration of normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz, as the global supply crisis deepens with the waterway remaining all but shut. “China calls for an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, supports all efforts to restore peace and insists disputes be resolved through political and diplomatic means,” Xi said in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to a statement. He also stressed Middle Eastern countries should take their future and destiny into their own hands. The comments came after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday that had docked twice in China in the weeks prior, according to The Wall Street Journal. China’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun separately told a press briefing the situation was “sensitive and complicated” and urged parties to maintain the momentum of ceasefire negotiations.(Chinese foreign ministry)(Reuters)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)