Trump says Iran war could go longer than the projected four-five weeks

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

1.

‘Whatever it takes’: That was Donald Trump’s message as US and Israeli forces pounded Iran for a third consecutive day, with the US president warning the campaign had been projected to last four to five weeks but that it could be sustained for “far longer.” Speaking at a White House Medal of Honour ceremony in his most extensive public comments since the war began, Trump said the US was achieving four things: destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, annihilating its navy, ensuring Tehran could never obtain a nuclear weapon and preventing it from arming regional proxies. The remarks came as the conflict that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday widened to Lebanon, the Gulf and beyond. Khamenei’s wife, Mansoureh Khojasteh, died Monday from injuries sustained in the opening attack, Iranian state media reported. Four US service members have been killed, with Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Dan Caine warning at a Pentagon press conference that additional casualties were expected. Kuwaiti air defences mistakenly shot down three US F-15E fighters during active combat, but all six crew members ejected safely and were recovered in stable condition, US Central Command said. Israeli fighter jets struck more than 600 targets across Iran in nearly three days of fighting, General Effie Defrin, the spokesman for the Israeli military, said in a televised address. (Capital Brief)(NYT)(Reuters)(AP)

2.

Oil impact: Oil surged the most in four years as the widening conflict shut down key energy infrastructure and choked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts warning of weeks of disruption ahead. QatarEnergy halted production of liquefied natural gas after military attacks on its facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed industrial cities, cutting off a large share of the world’s LNG supply and sending European gas prices surging nearly 50% to their highest level in a year. Goldman Sachs analysts warned that if gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz stopped for a month, European prices could climb 130% from levels the previous week. Saudi Aramco shut its 550,000-barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery (Saudi Arabia’s biggest domestic oil refinery) as a precautionary measure after Iranian drones were intercepted over the facility, causing debris to fall. In Abu Dhabi, a drone struck the Musaffah fuel tank terminal, sparking a fire that authorities quickly contained with no injuries and no impact on operations, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said. The terminal is operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, which uses it to distribute fuel by truck and through a 1,600-kilometre pipeline network across the emirate. Ship-tracking platform MarineTraffic reported that transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, had fallen approximately 70% since Saturday. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said that OPEC’s recent decision to increase production could become “an entirely moot point” in an extended war scenario, with several analysts saying oil could surge to USD100 a barrel. Brent crude was last up 8.3% at USD78.50 a barrel. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(Gulf news)(NYT)