Trump threatens Iran as Vance departs for Pakistan peace talks

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know this weekend.

---

1.

Iran war: US President Donald Trump warned Iran to negotiate as Vice President JD Vance departed for high-stakes talks with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday. Vance said he expected the talks to be positive, but added that if Iran is “going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.” Vance said Trump outlined “pretty clear guidelines” for the negotiations, focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining the two-week ceasefire. Israel and Hezbollah continued to trade fire, with Israel and the US refusing to agree that Lebanon was included in the temporary truce. The death toll from Israel’s Wednesday strikes on Lebanon rose to 357. Earlier, Trump said the US was “loading up the ships” with weapons and ammunition in case the talks fail. Lockheed Martin announced it had been awarded a USD4.7 billion ($6.64 billion) deal for Patriot interceptors by the Pentagon, used extensively by the US and allies to shoot down Iranian drones. Meanwhile, the jet fuel crunch is intensifying across Europe and Asia, with Europe at risk of jet fuel shortages in just three weeks’ time if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen. CEO of Fuels for Ireland Kevin McPartlan said the number of petrol stations without fuel in the country could rise to 500 in the next 24 hours. (WSJ)(BBC)(Bloomberg)(FT)

2.

Pump the brakes: The S&P 500 fell slightly on Friday, dropping 0.11% to end at 6,816.89, while the Nasdaq pushed up 0.35% to close at 22,902.89. The Dow Jones declined 0.56%. Despite the soft close, the trio of indexes all closed up for the week as traders kept a wary eye on the fragile truce in the Middle East. US inflation jumped to a two-year high in March, driven by skyrocketing petrol prices and pushing consumer sentiment to record lows amid the US war in Iran. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the US consumer price index climbed to 3.3% in March from a year prior, its highest reading since 2024 and a sharp rise on its year-on-year increase of 2.4% in February. Energy prices drove the sharp CPI uptick, jumping 12.5% from one year earlier and a strong acceleration from the 0.5% monthly increase in February. Prices for fuel swelled 18.9% while fuel oil surged by 44.2% from 12 months prior. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment plummeted to 47.6 from 53.3 in March, its lowest level on record. RBC’s Mike Reid told the FT: “The conflict is putting a lot of pressure on primarily gasoline prices…And if you’re spending more on gasoline, you’re going to have to cut back elsewhere.” (BoLS)(UoM)(FT)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)(CNBC)

3.

Singapore handshake: Anthony Albanese and Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong vowed to “support the flow of essential goods” including fuel and meet each other’s energy security needs against the backdrop of the “acute energy crisis”. The leaders made the commitments after meeting in Singapore to try to stem an impending supply shortage resulting from the war in Iran. A joint statement released by the leaders said: “We stated our determination to make maximum efforts to meet each other’s energy security needs in the context of the acute energy crisis currently affecting global markets.” Singapore is Australia’s largest single supplier of refined petroleum and accounts for around 55% of Australia’s petrol imports. The leaders urged the US and Iran to permanently end the war in the Middle East, reaffirming support for the current ceasefire and “encouraged negotiations to bring an end to the conflict.” Despite the comments reaffirming an agreement between the nations in March, the joint statement did not include a guarantee that Australia would remain the first in line should Singapore’s refineries reduce output further. (Leaders’ joint statement)(ABC)(SMH)(AFR)

4.

Anthropic allure: Shares in AI cloud provider CoreWeave surged as much as 11% on Friday, after Anthropic agreed to rent the AI cloud provider’s compute capacity to power its AI models. The multiyear deal will see CoreWeave help Anthropic build and deploy its Claude family of AI models. “With the addition of Anthropic, nine of the leading ten AI model providers now leverage CoreWeave’s platform, reflecting the growing demand for infrastructure that can support AI at scale,” a statement on the news said. The news comes just one day after CoreWeave announced an expansion of its agreement with Meta. CoreWeave did not disclose the financial details of the agreement, stating that the collaboration will begin with a phased infrastructure roll-out expanding over time. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada and other major Canadian lenders gathered on Friday to discuss cybersecurity risks raised by Anthropic latest AI model, Claude Mythos Preview, Bloomberg reported. The move comes after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent summoned leaders of US banks to discuss the potential cyber risks posed by Mythos. (CoreWeave)(CNBC)(Bloomberg)(FT)

5.

Boron bidding: Rio Tinto has garnered interest from over 12 potential bidders for its California assets that produce critical mineral boron, according to sources close to the matter cited by Bloomberg. Sources told the masthead the Anglo-Australian dual-listed miner could fetch around USD2 billion ($2.83 billion) for the assets, with firms including WE Soda, Magris Resources and US Silica Holdings among the interested bidders. The companies are expected to extend binding offers to Rio Tinto by June, with the sale process coming as the Trump administration seeks to boost domestic production of minerals which are viewed as crucial to the US economy and national security. Boron is used in fertilisers, high-tech applications and materials for renewable energy. Rio made the decision to divest its US boron assets in late 2025 as part of its restructuring under new CEO Simon Trott. (Bloomberg)

6.

Indispensable interlock: When Greg Moriarty walks through the Australian embassy’s door later this month as Kevin Rudd’s successor, he’ll also be walking into one of the most complex jobs in Australian diplomacy. Moriarty will be tasked with managing the daily turbulence from Trump’s White House while keeping the AUKUS pact in the air. He may draw fewer headlines than the high-profile Rudd, a former prime minister with a history of criticising the famously fickle president, but his expertise may well prove vital. A former ambassador to Iran and Indonesia, Moriarty has also had stints as a prime ministerial adviser and defence secretary. Arthur Sinodinos, who served in the role between 2020 and 2023, stressed that every ambassador is a “different personality” required to chart their own course. “There is no one model of how to do it,” Sinodinos told Capital Brief. Moriarty, who was Defence secretary when the AUKUS agreement was announced in 2021 and briefed then-president George W Bush on the nation in 2007 is a “very well-informed interlock for the Americans”, Sinodinos said. (Capital Brief)

7.

Shorting Trump: Shares in data intelligence group Palantir rose over 4% on Friday after US President Donald Trump touted the company’s “great war fighting capabilities and equipment. Just ask our enemies,” via a post on Truth Social. Trump’s comments followed a Fox Business interview with renowned short seller Michael Burry spelling out the case that rival Anthropic is winning the race in enterprise AI spending. Burry later published a Substack post reaffirming his short position on the stock after Trump’s comments, writing that he continues to hold long-dated put options on the AI company. “Trump’s post rallied the stock after the stock had fallen 18% the last three days. The stock may catch a wind here. It has been selling off with software stocks. As mentioned, I continue to hold the puts, as I believe the fundamental value of this company is well under $50/share,” he said. Palantir traded around USD127 per share on Friday. (Bloomberg)(CNBC)(FT)

8.

Pointed questions: Magellan’s conference room was packed with professionals in suits for an extraordinary general meeting on Friday, to approve its merger with investment bank Barrenjoey. When the deal was announced the market was split on its success. In the end, it passed with overwhelming support. Almost all (91.67%) of shareholders voted for the deal, with 7.72% against. However, that did not stop some retail shareholders from asking pointed questions about the deal’s share purchase plan, the Lowy family’s involvement and the initial lack of transparency around Barrenjoey’s balance sheet. Magellan responded to transparency concerns by disclosing the figures hours after market close on the eve of the Easter weekend, while chair Andrew Formica told Capital Brief he believed Magellan had been transparent and disclosure demands would not change how the company released information. On the Lowy family’s involvement, Formica said the family had been a long-time investor in Magellan funds and, prior to the placement, had been shareholders. (Capital Brief)