Ukraine fires US-made ATACMS missiles into Russia

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Missile escalation: Ukraine launched US-made long-range missiles into Russia's Bryansk region for the first time in 1,000 days of war, following President Biden’s recent authorisation. Russian officials said six US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) were fired early Tuesday morning local time, with air defences intercepting five and damaging one, triggering a fire at an unspecified military facility without causing damage or casualties. Ukrainian officials claimed to have struck a weapons depot but did not specify the weapons used. Videos on Telegram showed flames and smoke at the site. The strikes coincide with the 1,000th day of Russia’s invasion as President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the response threshold to include conventional attacks involving nuclear-backed nations. This follows intensified Russian strikes on Ukraine, including deadly attacks in Sumy and Odesa, and the involvement of North Korean troops aiding Russia. (Capital Brief)(NYT)(Reuters)(FT)(AP)(CNN)

2.

Packed deal: Amcor will acquire US-based Berry Global in an all-stock transaction valued at USD8.43 billion ($13 billion), expanding its dominance in consumer and healthcare packaging. Berry shareholders will receive 7.25 Amcor shares per Berry share, valuing Berry stock at USD73.59, a 9.75% premium over its last close. The merged company, to be named Amcor plc, is projected to generate USD24 billion in revenue and USD4.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA. The deal, unanimously approved by both boards, is expected to close by mid-2025 and targets USD650 million in synergies by the third year, bolstering Amcor’s presence across 140 countries and over 400 facilities. Amcor CEO Peter Konieczny, who started his role in September, will lead the group, with Graeme Liebelt staying as chairman. UBS and Goldman Sachs are advising Amcor, with Kirkland & Ellis providing legal support. Lazard and Wells Fargo are advising Berry, with legal counsel from Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. (Capital Brief)

3.

Shopper cheer: Walmart raised its annual sales and profit forecast ahead of the holiday season and for the third consecutive time, driven by strong demand from higher-income shoppers and a surge in online sales. The world’s largest retailer now projects fiscal 2025 net sales growth of 4.8-5.1%, up from 3.75-4.75%. Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 were 58 cents, surpassing FactSet’s estimate of 53 cents. The company raised its annual adjusted profit per share forecast to USD2.42-2.47 from USD2.35-2.43. "The majority of our customers are maintaining their holiday plans year over year amidst the election, the calendar shift, the economic backdrop," Walmart said. Shares, up over 60% this year, rose as much as 4.5% before trimming gains. Inflation-hit consumers turned to Walmart for low prices. Food sales were strong, while e-commerce jumped 27%. CFO John David Rainey noted tariffs remain a concern but said, “Overall, we are feeling good about the holiday.” (Capital Brief)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)

4.

Cable hit: Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said the damage made to undersea Baltic Sea cables is likely sabotage, calling it a “hybrid” warfare tactic. The incidents involved the 1,200km C-Lion1 cable between Finland and Germany and a 218km link between Lithuania and Sweden, severed between Sunday and Monday. Pistorius remarked, “no one believes these cables were cut accidentally… And we also have to assume, without knowing it yet, that it is sabotage.” While no party has been identified, The Wall Street Journal reported that officials suspect Russia, citing similarities to prior operations linked to Moscow’s hybrid warfare against NATO members. The Financial Times reported Swedish investigators are looking into a Chinese vessel spotted where the cables were severed. Separately, joint declaration by six European foreign ministers warned of Russia’s “escalating hybrid activities” posing unprecedented security risks. Investigations are ongoing, with Sweden, Finland, and NATO members involved. Finnish operator Cinia noted repair times could take up to 15 days. (FT)(WSJ)(BBC)(AP)

5.

Commerce pick: US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and co-chair of Trump’s transition team, as Commerce Secretary, according to multiple media outlets. Lutnick, 63, was also a contender for Treasury Secretary but was passed over amid competition with other sources including rival hedge fund manager Scott Bessent. Lutnick has publicly supported Trump’s proposed tariffs, including a 60% impost on Chinese imports, aligning with Trump's economic agenda. Known for leading Cantor Fitzgerald’s recovery after losing 658 employees in the September 11 attacks, Lutnick has the endorsements of high-profile figures, including the important backing of Elon Musk. Other candidates included Linda McMahon a former Small Business Administration official, and Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative during Trump’s first term. Both were informed they would not be chosen, CNN reported. (CNN)(Reuters)(Axios)(The Hill)

6.

Chip volatility: Options traders are anticipating an 8.5% move in the share price of Nvidia, whose market cap has reached USD3.44 trillion $5.27 trillion), after its quarterly results tomorrow, Reuters reported. That implies a potential market cap change of around USD292 billion based on data from ORATS. Historically, Nvidia's post-earnings movements have often been smaller than market expectations, but when the outcomes have exceeded expectations, they have tended to be positive. Nvidia's results are expected to influence market trends, particularly after a stalled rally following the US elections. Analysts predict third-quarter sales of USD33.13 billion, up 82.8% from last year. Nvidia shares have risen roughly 180% in 2024, placing it among the top S&P 500 performers. (Reuters)

7.

Super auditor: Shares of Super Micro Computer rose over 31% after the company appointed BDO USA as its new auditor and submitted a compliance plan to Nasdaq for its delayed earnings reports. Ernst & Young had resigned as auditor in October, citing governance and transparency concerns. Super Micro's new filing plan, if accepted, could extend its deadline to submit its financial documents to February. The company's strong position in the AI data centre market has helped its shares but has faced major setbacks this year. That includes a damaging report by short-seller Hindenburg Research and a US Department of Justice probe, leading to an over 80% drop in shares from a March peak. (Reuters)(Bloomberg)

8.

Trump liftoff: SpaceX is set to launch its sixth Starship test from Boca Chica, Texas, on Tuesday, with President-elect Donald Trump attending along with his son Donald Jr. and Senator Ted Cruz, according to media reports. The 400-foot rocket system, featuring the Super Heavy booster, will aim for a 90-minute orbital flight with a splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The test will include booster recovery using launch-tower arms, which Trump praised during October’s successful attempt. Musk has said this test includes “thousands of small design changes.” Trump, who has supported Musk with an estimated USD130 million in political backing, recently appointed him to co-lead a government project to reduce federal waste. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has said that the company could reach 400 Starship launches in four years, matching its Falcon current milestone. (Reuters)