Wall Street falls on GS, MS pullback warnings

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

All lower: US stocks were falling after Wall Street CEOs warned of a possible pullback in equity markets, raising concerns about lofty valuations following a months-long rally driven by AI optimism. The S&P 500 was 1.2% lower in afternoon trading, the Nasdaq was down 1.9% and the Dow 0.7% lower, with Big Tech stocks leading declines. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told a conference in Hong Kong he expects a 10-20% drawdown in equity markets over the next 12 to 24 months, while Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said at the same event that 10-15% corrections should be welcomed as healthy market developments. Palantir and Uber shares were lower after results. And Bitcoin fell below USD100,000 for the first time since June, hitting USD99,963 before recovering, as October’s heavy liquidations, Fed uncertainty and ongoing ETF outflows weighed on sentiment. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(WSJ)

2.

Access denied: The government added Reddit and Kick to the list of companies that will be banned for people under the age of sixteen under Australia’s world-first social media ban. Communications Minister Anika Wells will today confirm that the social messaging forum and live streaming platform will be covered by the ban which comes into effect in early December. Reddit and Kick will join Snapchat, TikTok, YouTube, X, Facebook and Instagram, which include Threads, as "age-restricted" next month. Wells left the door open to further additions, saying assessments are “ongoing and this list is dynamic”. Wells said that the platforms have “no excuse for failure” in implementing the ban which will see companies risk paying fines of up to $49.5 million should they fail to comply. The eSafety Commission declared that the services currently meet the criteria for being included in the ban, specifically that their "sole or significant purpose is to enable online social interaction". (Capital Brief)(ABC)(AFR)(news.com)

3.

NY elections: New Yorkers had already cast about 1.2 million ballots in one of the city’s most closely watched mayoral races in years, with democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani holding a narrowing lead over former governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary. A Suffolk University poll released last week showed Mamdani’s lead had dropped from 20 to 10 points, and early voting data cited by Bloomberg signalled slightly increased turnout among older residents, a group that tends to favour Cuomo over his 34-year-old rival. Mamdani has energised younger voters with promises to freeze rents, universal childcare and free buses. Cuomo has pitched himself as a seasoned pragmatist focused on public safety and housing access. Cuomo, 67, resigned in 2021 after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment, allegations he denies. Donald Trump has endorsed him, threatened to cut more federal funds if Mamdani wins, and called Mamdani a “stupid person” and a “JEW HATER”. Mamdani denies antisemitism and has accused opponents of Islamophobia. Polls close 9:00pm local time (1:00pm Wednesday AEST). In New Jersey, voting was briefly disrupted by bomb threats at polling sites in seven counties. None were found to be credible. (NYT)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)

4.

Regulatory road: Australia's top financial industry associations cautiously endorsed the corporate regulator’s “light-touch, proportionate” plan for greater scrutiny of private markets, as ASIC chair Joe Longo flagged potential enforcement action against funds engaging in poor practices and risking losses for their clients. ASIC on Wednesday released its 12 to 18 month roadmap for the sector along with its surveillance on 28 private credit funds operated by large industry players including Metrics, Challenger and Ares. Australian Investment Council chief executive Navleen Prasad told Capital Brief that the association was looking forward to the watchdog’s data pilot given the opaque nature of the asset class. Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia chief executive Mary Delahunty said ASIC’s “roadmap gives funds a clear understanding of regulatory expectations.” When asked by Capital Brief on what kinds of funds the proposal for a risk-tiered reporting regime would be targeted, Longo said ASIC would be calling for registration of wholesale funds above a certain value. (Capital Brief)(Capital Brief)

5.

Spend and re-spend: Perth-based Radium Capital has turned the once niche practice of lending against R&D tax refunds into a billion-dollar business, passing $1 billion in advances to more than 1,000 companies since 2017. Radium’s model (transforming the 18-month wait for R&D tax incentives into a monthly cash flow tool) has proven its worth for clients with between 60% and 70% returning. The company works with businesses ranging from startups to listed entities, with typical advances starting from $1 million although some reach into "the teens". "R&D lending is a little bit counter-cyclical," Radium managing director Jeremy Loftus told Capital Brief. "When traditional markets tighten a bit, we seem to be busier during those periods." The market dynamics reflect a broader shift in how Australian companies fund research. Rather than waiting for annual tax refunds, businesses now use advances to accelerate development cycles. Companies can "spend it and borrow and respend it again," Loftus said, effectively multiplying their R&D capacity beyond original budgets. (Capital Brief)

6.

Cheney obit: Dick Cheney, the powerful Republican vice president under George W Bush, died aged 84. A central figure in US politics, Cheney served two terms from 2001 to 2009 and was widely seen as one of the most powerful vice presidents in history. After the 9/11 attacks, he advanced the “One Percent Doctrine”, which shaped the Bush administration’s aggressive foreign policy, including the invasion of Iraq. A polarising figure, Cheney later broke with Donald Trump, opposing his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and criticising his role in the 6 January Capitol riots. In 2024, he reportedly voted for Democrat Kamala Harris, calling Trump a “coward” and “a threat to our republic”. Cheney died from complications of pneumonia and cardiac and vascular disease, with his wife Lynne and daughters Liz and Mary by his side. He had long battled heart disease, suffering five heart attacks and receiving a heart transplant in 2012. (Capital Brief)(Politico)(CNN)(Bloomberg)

7.

Up the ante: Novo Nordisk and Pfizer sweetened their bids for the US obesity-focused biotech Metsera, as the two pharmaceutical giants battle to land one of the world’s most promising weight-loss startups. Novo’s new offer values Metsera at a total of USD10 billion ($15.39 billion) at USD86.20 per share, representing an approximate 159% premium to Metsera's closing price as of 19 September 2025. The USD70 per share improved offer provided by Pfizer values the company at around USD8.1 billion. Metsera said that Pfizer has two days to negotiate potential adjustments to its offer to counter what it describes as Novo’s “superior” offer. The intensifying bidding war has seen Pfizer file two lawsuits against Metsera and Novo, accusing Novo of structuring its bid for Metsera to stall the entry of the biotech firm's treatments into the obesity drug market and alleging that a merger between Novo and Metsera would violate federal antitrust laws. (Capital Brief)(Metsera)

8.

Originations up: Apollo Global Management’s third-quarter earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations, with adjusted net income rising 20% to USD1.36 billion ($2.09 billion) or USD2.17 per share. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected USD1.90 respectively. Fee-related earnings reached a record USD652 million, up 23% from a year earlier, also ahead of expectations. The company reported USD82 billion in quarterly inflows, including about USD34 billion from its acquisition of Bridge Investment Group, pushing total assets under management to USD908 billion. Origination activity reached USD75 billion in the quarter, which CEO Marc Rowan described as “very strong” on a call with analysts. “The reward for good origination is people want to invest with us,” he said. The Capital Solutions business saw a 33% jump in fees. Spread-related earnings from Athene, the firm’s retirement services arm, climbed to USD871 million. Performance fees in private equity fell 39% to USD201 million, and Apollo said the environment for cashing out on acquired companies remained “uncertain”. (Apollo)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)