The best-read documents released with next week’s federal budget might not be the budget papers themselves.
As Donald Trump’s Middle East war, which was meant to last four to six weeks, rages into its ninth, the government will produce an additional budget document outlining its “downside scenario”. The document will set out Treasury’s view of what might happen if the conflict continues.
It might otherwise be called a nightmare scenario.
We already know the government has waved goodbye to more than $2.5 billion in revenue to pay for its decision to halve fuel excise to help battling motorists.
But what would it mean for the budget if the government had to keep subsidising fuel excise for months on end? What would happen if, as the opposition is calling for, the government had to provide assistance to other affected sectors, such as farmers, fertiliser businesses and regional tourism operators?
