Zelensky offers to quit for Ukraine’s peace

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Zelensky’s offer: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is willing to step down if it secures NATO membership or lasting peace for Ukraine. Speaking in Kyiv on Sunday, he said, “If such conditions exist, I will step down immediately.” His comments come as the Trump administration has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and pressed Kyiv to sign a deal giving the US control over USD500 billion ($786.8 billion) worth of proceeds from Ukrainian mineral extraction, which Zelensky reportedly rejected as too costly and lacking a security guarantee. Meanwhile, Britain and France are developing a plan to deploy up to 30,000 European peacekeepers in Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached, but the proposal depends on persuading Trump to agree to a limited US military role as a “backstop.” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington this week to discuss the plan. (Bloomberg)(FT)(WSJ)

2.

Right turn: Germany’s opposition conservatives won the national election on Sunday, exit polls showed, putting CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz on track to become chancellor. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured its best-ever result. An exit poll from public broadcaster ZDF showed the CDU/CSU winning 28.5% of the vote, with the AfD at 20%. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) posted their worst result since World War II, with 16%, Bloomberg reported citing separate projections. The election followed the collapse of Scholz’s coalition in November and was shaped by debates over migration and security. Figures from the Trump administration, including US Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk, backed the AfD. With no party securing a majority, Merz must negotiate a coalition, possibly with the SPD. “The new chancellor will be Friedrich Merz,” CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann said. (Reuters)(Bloomberg)(Capital Brief)

3.

Cash heavy: In his annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett assured investors that he still wants to own businesses despite Berkshire Hathaway’s move to shed stocks without making any large acquisitions. The group’s cash holdings have climbed USD9 billion ($14.2 billion) to a record high of USD334.2 billion, as revealed in its Q4 results, after reducing stakes in stocks including Citigroup and Bank of America. Buffett also wrote that Berkshire has paid the US government over USD101 billion in taxes over the past 60 years, more than any other firm in history. Paying a whopping USD26.8 billion in taxes in 2024 alone, Buffett said the figure amounts to around 5% of the total taxes paid by US companies last year. Perhaps making a thinly veiled dig at the current US administration, Buffett told ‘Uncle Sam’ to “Spend it wisely. Take care of the many who, for no fault of their own, get the short straws in life. They deserve better.” (FT)(Bloomberg)

4.

Bulk billing: Labor announced an $8.5 billion Medicare splurge to expand bulk-billing if re-elected, making healthcare a key election issue. The package, set to take effect from 1 November, includes a tripling of the bulk-billing incentive, 400 nursing scholarships, and funding for 2,000 new GP trainees by 2028. In 2023-24, 8.8% of patients cited cost as a reason for delaying or avoiding a GP visit, while some doctors say bulk-billing is unsustainable. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton quickly vowed to match the funding, committing $9 billion to Medicare and urging Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to allocate an extra $500 million for mental health services. Neither Albanese nor Dutton has outlined how the increased spending will be paid for. (Capital Brief)(The Australian)

5.

Late Telegram: The eSafety Commissioner fined encrypted-messaging platform Telegram $1 million for its delay responding to questions about measures taken by the app to prevent the spread of child abuse and extremist material, according to Reuters. In March 2024, the Commission sought responses from YouTube, Meta, X, Telegram and Reddit, accusing them of not doing enough to stop extremists from using the platforms for recruitment. Telegram and Reddit were also asked to explain how they were combatting the spread of child sexual abuse material on their apps by May 2024, but Telegram only submitted its response in October. "Timely transparency is not a voluntary requirement in Australia and this action reinforces the importance of all companies complying with Australian law," eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant said. Grant said Telegram’s delay stopped eSafety from implementing its online safety measures. (Reuters)

6.

Last week: The Trump administration emailed more than 2 million federal workers, instructing them to reply outlining what they achieved last week at work or be considered resigned. The directive, issued Saturday by Elon Musk’s so-called DOGE department, required employees to submit five bullet points of accomplishments—excluding classified information by 11:59 pm Monday in Washington. Musk posted that “failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.” Justice Department (DOJ) supervisors advised staff to delay compliance over ethics concerns, particularly regarding non-public investigations. NASA’s Space Operations Mission group also advised employees to wait for further guidance. DOGE, created by Trump in January to modernise government and cut staff, claims to have saved USD55 billion ($86.55 billion) so far, but has only publicly accounted for USD16.6 billion of that. The initiative has sparked lawsuits, with a federal judge recently refusing to block its work. (Bloomberg)

7.

Live-fire: China criticised Australia’s response to naval exercises taking place off the east coast late last week, saying Australia’s complaints were “hyped up” and “inconsistent with the facts.” China’s Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said Australia’s response to the live-fire drills by three warships in waters off Australia were “completely unfounded.” On Saturday, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said that Beijing failed to give satisfactory reasons for giving insufficient notice for the live-fire drills, which forced commercial airlines to divert flights around the area. Wu responded that Australia had been given repeated safety notices issued in advance of the drills, and that the actions were entirely in accordance with international law and established practices. "Despite being fully aware of the fact, Australia has unjustly criticised China and deliberately exaggerated the issue, and we are astonished and strongly dissatisfied with this," Wu said. (Capital Brief)(China Ministry of Defense release)

8.

Crypto case-watch: ASIC’s lawsuit against blockchain mining firm NGS Group has put a spotlight on regulatory uncertainty in Australia’s crypto sector, with the company arguing the corporate watchdog failed to provide clear guidance before taking legal action. NGS claims ASIC did not initially clarify that it was bound by the Corporations Act and required to register as a foreign company. Had it known earlier, the company says it could have addressed any alleged breaches. It also contends that if ASIC was uncertain about its status, NGS itself could not have known either. ASIC alleges NGS Crypto, NGS Digital, and NGS Group targeted Australian investors with blockchain mining packages promising fixed returns. The companies also allegedly encouraged investors to move retirement savings from regulated super funds to self-managed super funds before converting them into cryptocurrency. (Capital Brief)