After last month's unemployment spike, are we in for another jobs data surprise?
The Reserve Bank is increasingly facing a challenge between maintaining full employment and keeping inflation in the target band.
As the Reserve Bank mulls the future path of monetary policy, it's clear there are two data points it will be focused on— inflation and the labour market. But will the two be increasingly at odds, putting the central bank in a tricky spot, or is unemployment likely to slip back?
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
New numbers
The data: Monthly business turnover indicator, September 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Monday 10 November 2025
Note: Final release.
The data: Lending indicators, September quarter 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Wednesday 12 November 2025
The data: Overseas arrivals and departures, September 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Wednesday 12 November 2025
The data: Labour force, October 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Thursday 13 November 2025
What to expect: Last month's labour force data surprised economists with a spike in unemployment to 4.5%, which prompted some reconsideration of the future trajectory of rates — until higher-than-expected inflation changed their minds again. This time, they overwhelmingly think the jobless rate will edge down citing volatility in the figures.
The consensus is for a 4.4% unemployment rate, about 17,000 jobs to be added and the participation rate to sit at 67%.
